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live news → direct + nth-order signals · US + Canada (723 names: 503 US / 220 TSX) · standalone paper book vs Hold-XIU · US regular · TSX regular (2026-08-06 15:58 EDT) · updated 2026-08-06 15:55 ET · research, signal-only.
Paper equity · since 2026-06-13 · 55 trading days
$767 -23.3%
behind Hold-XIU by $275 · XIU +4.2%
paper only
net 0.25%/side
News sleeve Hold-XIU
Open theses236
Resolved1179
Hits376 / 1179
Conviction signal⚠ 2.4/2.4

Open theses

236 live
TPZ.TO TSX TOPAZ ENERGY CORP PAPER LONG ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 results + guidance raise + tuck-in acquisitio ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
-4.5%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 31.55 TARGET 33.13 (+5%) STOP 29.97 (-5%) ✓ clears · +4.5% net · R:R 0.82
Chain: Topaz reports Q2 2026 results with a guidance increase and a tuck-in royalty acquisition — a three-part positive print for a royalty name where guidance is the main valuation driver · quality: margin 15% · rev +42%
why: Guidance increase plus accretive tuck-in on the same release; royalty names rerate on guidance, and TPZ is thinly covered so repricing lags.
ALGN US Align Technology PAPER LONG ◆ HIGH DIRECT · activist settlement / strategic review ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑8%
Horizon
21d · 21 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 180.08 TARGET 194.49 (+8%) STOP 171.08 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +4.5% net · R:R 0.53
Chain: Align Technology adds three independent directors and launches an operations review after Elliott talks — activist-driven cost/capital-allocation reviews typically pull forward margin-expansion and bu · quality: ROE 11% · margin 10% · rev +6%
why: Elliott board settlement + operational review is a hard, confirmed catalyst on a beaten-down name; activist re-rating usually plays out over weeks, not one session.
LH US Labcorp PAPER LONG ◆ OK DIRECT · guidance raise + Q2 print ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 307.15 TARGET 322.51 (+5%) STOP 291.79 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: Labcorp raises FY earnings outlook on strong medical testing demand; guidance raises drive post-earnings drift · quality: ROE 11% · margin 7% · rev +6%
why: Raised outlook on demand strength is a hard catalyst; PEAD typically persists days-weeks, though much lands on the print day.
MU US Micron Technology PAPER LONG ◆ HIGH DIRECT · memory pricing surge / supply crunch ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑7%
Horizon
14d · 14 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 874.66 TARGET 935.89 (+7%) STOP 830.93 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +3.5% net · R:R 0.41
Chain: Amazon and Apple management publicly flag soaring memory costs and continued supply crunch, confirming pricing power for DRAM/NAND suppliers into Micron's next quarters · quality: ROE 67% · margin 56% · rev +346%
why: Buy-side confirmation from two mega-cap buyers that memory prices keep rising is the cleanest read-through to MU pricing/margins; move started after-hours, not fully priced.
ELV US Elevance Health PAPER LONG ◆ OK DIRECT · regulatory lawsuit ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
30d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 417.89 TARGET 426.25 (+2%) STOP 397.00 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Elevance Health files lawsuit against CMS over Star Ratings recalculation to recover quality bonus payments. · quality: ROE 12% · margin 3% · rev +3%
why: Elevance sues CMS to recover $115M in 2027 quality bonus payments, disputing the unfair recalculation methodology for its Medicare Advantage plans.
BBY US Best Buy PAPER LONG ◆ OK DIRECT · exclusive product launch ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
15%
BUY 79.99 TARGET 83.19 (+4%) STOP 75.99 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Best Buy launches exclusive national retail partnership for new RGB LED TVs, targeting the 5-7 year pandemic replacement cycle with high-value installation services. · quality: ROE 39% · margin 3% · rev +2%
why: Exclusive TV launch and services target the pandemic upgrade cycle, driving high-margin home theater and installation revenue.
PYPL US PayPal short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
20%
Chain: JPMorgan, Bank of America, and other major banks explore a joint deal to launch a payments competitor. → A joint network by major banks poses a threat to PayPal's transaction volumes, market share, and fee margins. · quality: ROE 25% · margin 15% · rev +7%
why: A coordinated digital payment push by major retail banks directly threatens PayPal's market share in online checkouts.
IMO.TO TSX IMPERIAL OIL watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° supply-shock ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑6%
Horizon
21d · 11 left
Since entry
+4.4%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 168.35 TARGET 178.45 (+6%) STOP 159.93 (-5%) ✓ clears · +5.5% net · R:R 1.0
Chain: Ukrainian strikes cripple Russian refining capacity → Global diesel supply tightens, distillate cracks widen → Imperial Oil's downstream-heavy mix earns outsized refining margin → Earnings revisions follow crack spreads with a lag · quality: ROE 12% · margin 6% · rev -0%
why: IMO is the most refining-levered TSX name; diesel cracks are the direct P&L driver. Market reprices refiners slower than crude names.
PHM US PulteGroup short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° demand-shock
Target
↓5%
Horizon
20d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Mortgage rates hit an 11-month high → Higher financing costs cut affordability and slow new-home orders → PulteGroup's order book and incentive costs deteriorate · quality: ROE 16% · margin 12% · rev -12%
why: Homebuilders trade off the 30-yr rate with a short lag; an 11-month high is a real affordability headwind into the selling season.
HON US Honeywell Technologies watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · acquisition + 2026 guidance ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
20d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 225.02 TARGET 234.02 (+4%) STOP 213.77 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Honeywell acquires Johnson Matthey Catalyst Technologies and frames 2026 guidance as a step-up in earnings power · quality: ROE 24% · margin 11% · rev +2%
why: Bolt-on catalyst-tech acquisition plus explicit 2026 guidance is a real strategic catalyst, but a simplywall.st framing and mega-cap size mean much is already discounted.
TECK-B.TO TSX TECK RESOURCES LIMITED CL B short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↓7%
Horizon
15d · 5 left
Since entry
+18.8%
Model: priced-in
35%
Chain: 50% tariff escalates a trade war and raises recession odds → Base-metal (copper/zinc) demand expectations cut, cyclical miners derate · quality: ROE 6% · margin 15% · rev +72%
why: Cyclical Canadian miner with US-bound volumes; trade-war beta is high.
MTL.TO TSX MULLEN GROUP LTD. short · log-only ◆ OK 3° demand-shock
Target
↓8%
Horizon
21d · 13 left
Since entry
+4.2%
Model: priced-in
15%
Chain: 50% tariff on Canadian goods → Cross-border truckload demand falls → Mullen's less-than-truckload and logistics volumes decline · quality: ROE 9% · margin 4% · rev +10%
why: Smaller Canadian trucking/logistics name; slower to reprice than the rails but same cross-border volume exposure.
ISRG US Intuitive Surgical short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
15d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: J&J OTTAVA gets FDA authorization → credible large-cap competitor to Intuitive's da Vinci soft-tissue robotic monopoly → market re-rates ISRG competitive moat · quality: ROE 17% · margin 28% · rev +18%
why: OTTAVA is a direct da Vinci rival; FDA clearance is the first real threat to ISRG's dominance in years.
AG.TO TSX FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · guidance upgrade
Target
↑6%
Horizon
20d · 13 left
Since entry
+2.1%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 24.20 TARGET 25.65 (+6%) STOP 22.99 (-5%) ✓ clears · +5.5% net · R:R 1.0
Chain: First Majestic raises production/cost guidance; analysis flags ~38% undervaluation vs new outlook · quality: ROE 11% · margin 20% · rev +95%
why: Real guidance upgrade on a universe silver name; analyst re-rate can extend beyond initial pop.
COHR US Coherent Corp. watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° input-demand ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑6%
Horizon
15d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 312.19 TARGET 330.92 (+6%) STOP 296.58 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +2.5% net · R:R 0.29
Chain: Alphabet Q2 confirms record cloud/AI capex → Hyperscalers ramp AI-infra optical interconnect spend → Photonics suppliers (COHR) see demand surge · quality: ROE 5% · margin 7% · rev +20%
why: COHR is an index-member optical play levered to hyperscaler capex; less directly priced than GOOGL itself.
GD US General Dynamics watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 379.01 TARGET 394.17 (+4%) STOP 360.06 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Defense package funds new submarines → General Dynamics Electric Boat is prime submarine builder → backlog support · quality: ROE 18% · margin 8% · rev +10%
why: Submarine funding flows to GD's Electric Boat; incremental but supportive of shipbuilding backlog.
O US Realty Income watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · data center investment
Target
↑3%
Horizon
15d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 64.71 TARGET 66.65 (+3%) STOP 61.47 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Realty Income makes major data-center commitment; new growth vertical supports dividend growth · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Strategic diversification into data centers is a modest positive; slow REIT repricing, low magnitude.
BSX US Boston Scientific watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 44.25 TARGET 46.02 (+4%) STOP 42.04 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Boston Scientific posts stronger-than-expected segment earnings · quality: ROE 15% · margin 17% · rev +12%
why: Direct earnings beat; medtech beats often see continued drift as estimates revise up.
DAL US Delta Air Lines watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · M&A approach (target) ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 85.06 TARGET 88.46 (+4%) STOP 80.81 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Delta named as the carrier United approached for a merger — target premium speculation · quality: ROE 20% · margin 6% · rev +19%
why: Named merger target in a credible report; even with low deal odds (antitrust), target names re-rate on the headline.
VST US Vistra Corp. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° demand-shock ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑6%
Horizon
21d · 19 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 163.38 TARGET 173.18 (+6%) STOP 155.21 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +2.5% net · R:R 0.29
Chain: Nvidia/OpenAI target a 10-gigawatt Ohio data-center campus → 10GW of new load must be contracted from merchant generators in PJM → Independent power producers with PJM nuclear/gas fleets gain pricing power and long-term PPA demand · quality: ROE 43% · margin 12% · rev +43%
why: Ohio sits in PJM where VST has large dispatchable capacity; 10GW of incremental load is the sort of announcement that has repriced IPPs before.
LHX US L3Harris watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · framework agreements / capacity expansion
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 303.78 TARGET 315.93 (+4%) STOP 288.59 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: L3Harris signs framework agreements to expand THAAD and PAC-3 missile defense propulsion production — multi-year solid rocket motor demand visibility, Aerojet segment volume up · quality: margin 10% · rev +190%
why: Named catalyst already moving the stock intraday; propulsion framework deals extend the missile-defense backlog. Partly priced same-day.
JNJ US Johnson & Johnson watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · litigation settlement ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 265.95 TARGET 273.93 (+3%) STOP 252.65 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: J&J offers $5.5bn to settle baby powder talc lawsuits, capping a long-running open-ended liability with a quantified number — removes overhang · quality: ROE 26% · margin 21% · rev +7%
why: Quantified settlement converts open-ended talc tail risk into a known charge; historically re-rates the multiple, though partly anticipated.
CCO.TO TSX CAMECO CORP watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° input-demand ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
15d · 12 left
Since entry
+4.9%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 126.05 TARGET 132.35 (+5%) STOP 119.75 (-5%) ✓ clears · +4.5% net · R:R 0.82
Chain: Nvidia backing a $500B, 10-gigawatt OpenAI/SoftBank data-center hub in Ohio → 10GW of always-on load cannot be met by intermittent renewables; utilities and hyperscalers contract nuclear/SMR baseload → Uranium demand expectations firm; Cameco is the largest Western-listed uranium producer and a direct beneficiary of AI-power baseload narratives · quality: ROE 10% · margin 18% · rev +7%
why: 10GW is an enormous baseload ask; AI-power headlines have repeatedly bid uranium names. Chain is well-trodden, so partly priced.
CNC US Centene Corporation watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · guidance raise ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑7%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 64.08 TARGET 68.57 (+7%) STOP 60.88 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +3.5% net · R:R 0.41
Chain: Centene lifts annual profit forecast on improved cost management · quality: ROE -26% · margin -4% · rev +5%
why: Managed care has been punished on medical cost ratios; evidence of cost control plus a raise is the key bear-thesis crack for a beaten-down name.
HLT US Hilton Worldwide watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · guidance raise
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 320.34 TARGET 333.15 (+4%) STOP 304.32 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Hilton raises full-year RevPAR forecast alongside Q2 2026 earnings — RevPAR is the core operating metric for the asset-light fee model, so a raise flows straight to fee revenue estimates · quality: margin 30% · rev +11%
why: RevPAR raise is the key lodging estimate driver; headline gives no magnitude, so sizing is conservative.
IQV US IQVIA watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat / top S&P mover
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
75%
BUY 240.04 TARGET 252.05 (+5%) STOP 228.04 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: IQVIA Holdings tops S&P 500 early-trade gainers, up 14.0% — a move that size on an index-component list implies a results/guidance surprise; large single-day CRO repricings tend to trend for days · quality: ROE 22% · margin 8% · rev +8%
why: 14% intraday gap on an S&P component signals a real catalyst; post-surprise drift is a documented but partly-priced effect.
TVE.TO TSX TAMARACK VALLEY ENERGY LTD watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · Q2 beat + enhanced dividend
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
-3.1%
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 12.74 TARGET 13.38 (+5%) STOP 12.10 (-5%) ✓ clears · +4.5% net · R:R 0.82
Chain: Tamarack Valley reports strong Q2, raises Q3 dividend and names new executive — cash-return catalyst for a small-cap TSX energy name · quality: ROE -5% · margin -7% · rev +4%
why: Small-cap TSX energy: Q2 beat plus an enhanced Q3 dividend is a real cash-return catalyst that typically re-rates over days, not minutes.
ROK US Rockwell Automation watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↑6%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 470.17 TARGET 498.37 (+6%) STOP 446.66 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +2.5% net · R:R 0.29
Chain: US bans new Chinese industrial robots → Domestic/allied automation vendors face less price competition → Rockwell Automation gains share and pricing power in US factory automation · quality: ROE 27% · margin 12% · rev +12%
why: Protectionist carve-out directly removes the lowest-cost competitor from US robotics demand; ROK is the purest listed beneficiary.
XYL US Xylem Inc. watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · earnings beat + guidance raise ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑6%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 124.97 TARGET 132.47 (+6%) STOP 118.72 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +2.5% net · R:R 0.29
Chain: Xylem beats Q2 on revenue and EPS with orders up 42% and raises profit guidance — beat-and-raise plus an order-book inflection · quality: ROE 9% · margin 11% · rev +3%
why: Beat-and-raise with a 42% order surge is a strong drift setup; orders lead revenue, so estimate revisions likely continue.
VLTO US Veralto watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings beat ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 98.47 TARGET 101.42 (+3%) STOP 93.55 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Veralto reports higher Q2 profit year-over-year — earnings momentum in a defensive water/quality-instruments name · quality: ROE 36% · margin 17% · rev +7%
why: Clean profit growth print. S&P 500 mid-cap coverage means partial pricing, but earnings drift is real.
PFG US Principal Financial Group watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings growth ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 114.09 TARGET 117.51 (+3%) STOP 108.39 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Principal Financial Q2 call flags strong earnings growth — insurer/asset-manager EPS momentum · quality: ROE 13% · margin 10% · rev -4%
why: Headline is truncated so the caveat is unknown; direction taken from the stated earnings growth. Modest size.
WELL US Welltower watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · FFO beat + guidance raise ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 243.57 TARGET 253.31 (+4%) STOP 231.39 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Welltower Q2 FFO beats with 20.5% SHO SSNOI growth and a raised 2026 outlook · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Beat-and-raise with 20.5% same-store NOI growth; REIT guidance raises tend to drift positively for weeks post-print.
DFY.TO TSX DEFINITY FINANCIAL CORPORATION short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Intact reports Q2 operating income down 40% on higher catastrophe and large losses → Same Canadian P&C cat events (wildfire/storm season) hit peer insurers' books → Definity, the closest listed Canadian personal-lines comp, sees estimate risk into its own Q2 print · quality: ROE 10% · margin 7% · rev +57%
why: Canadian cat losses are shared exposure, not company-specific. Definity is the purest listed read-through and is slower to reprice than the sector bellwether.
VTR US Ventas watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° demand-shock ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 98.14 TARGET 102.07 (+4%) STOP 93.23 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Welltower reports higher senior housing occupancy and pricing gains with a raised outlook → Senior-housing demand and rate growth are industry-wide, driven by demographics and constrained new supply → Ventas, the main listed senior-housing peer, sees the same operating tailwind ahead of its print · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Welltower's SHOP occupancy/pricing print is the sector's leading indicator; Ventas has the same operator exposure and tends to reprice with a lag.
PEY.TO TSX PEYTO EXPLORATION AND DVLPMNT C watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° demand-shock ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑7%
Horizon
21d · 20 left
Since entry
-1.9%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 25.15 TARGET 26.91 (+7%) STOP 23.89 (-5%) ✓ clears · +6.5% net · R:R 1.18
Chain: Europe gas stockpiles sink → Global LNG demand tightens NA gas balance → AECO/NYMEX strip firms → Peyto, high-beta unhedged-ish gas producer, gains most per $ of gas · quality: ROE 17% · margin 40% · rev +37%
why: Highest gas-price torque in the TSX-220 energy set; second-derivative of the same EU stockpile story.
UNH US UnitedHealth Group short · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · Medicare Part D subsidy scrap reported ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓6%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: WSJ reports administration will not continue the Part D premium-stabilization subsidy → Managed-care Part D economics worsen into 2027 bids; UNH is the largest MA/PDP writer → After-hours slip extends as sell-side cuts MA margin assumptions · quality: ROE 14% · margin 3% · rev +0%
why: Policy headline hits the whole MA/PDP complex; only partially reflected in the after-hours move, and bid-season commentary keeps it live.
CVS US CVS Health short · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · Medicare Part D subsidy scrap reported ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓6%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Part D premium subsidy removal reported → CVS/Aetna carries heavy standalone PDP + MA exposure and reports soon, so guidance risk compounds the policy hit · quality: ROE 4% · margin 1% · rev +6%
why: Standalone PDP book is the most directly exposed line to a Part D subsidy removal; earnings proximity raises the odds it gets repriced fast.
BIIB US Biogen watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · guidance raise ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 205.61 TARGET 215.89 (+5%) STOP 195.33 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: Biogen raises FY earnings guidance as growth portfolio outpaces declining legacy franchises — de-risks the bear thesis on legacy erosion · quality: ROE 8% · margin 14% · rev +2%
why: Direct guidance raise on the day; large-cap so partly priced intraday, but guidance revisions carry for days.
ETN US Eaton Corporation watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
7d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 386.26 TARGET 397.85 (+3%) STOP 366.95 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Vertiv beats and raises FY26 guidance across all key metrics on datacenter power/cooling demand → ETN sells the electrical gear into the same AI datacenter buildout and gets marked up on the read-through ahead of its own print · quality: ROE 21% · margin 14% · rev +17%
why: Vertiv's raise is the cleanest same-quarter datacenter-power datapoint; ETN is the largest listed pure read-through in the electrical chain.
GFL.TO TSX GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC short · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° competitor ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
+4.4%
Model: priced-in
25%
Chain: WM lowers FY2026 revenue outlook below consensus → Solid-waste volume/pricing read-across hits the smaller, more levered Canadian hauler harder → GFL's higher leverage amplifies any organic-growth downgrade · quality: ROE 3% · margin 3% · rev +5%
why: Levered small-cap comp to WM; sector organic-growth downgrades hit GFL beta hardest. Lower conviction than WCN — less direct overlap.
VMC US Vulcan Materials Company watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings, FY guidance reaffirmed ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
7d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 288.42 TARGET 299.96 (+4%) STOP 274.00 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: aggregates unit profitability expansion on price/cost discipline, full-year earnings reaffirmed — margin story intact · quality: ROE 13% · margin 14% · rev +7%
why: Aggregates pricing power + reaffirmed FY guide; direct catalyst but reaffirm (not raise) caps upside.
VTRS US Viatris watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · FDA approval ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 17.86 TARGET 18.57 (+4%) STOP 16.97 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Viatris wins US FDA approval for Gwyn Lo once-weekly contraceptive patch — new branded launch in a small-cap-value pharma with thin pipeline news flow · quality: ROE -2% · margin -2% · rev +8%
why: Approval is a real catalyst for a low-expectation name, but revenue contribution is modest vs Viatris' base — sentiment more than numbers.
CU.TO TSX CANADIAN UTILITIES LTD., CL.A, watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · Q2 earnings beat (profit up YoY) ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
-1.5%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 54.73 TARGET 56.37 (+3%) STOP 51.99 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Canadian Utilities reports Q2 profit increase vs prior year; regulated-utility earnings surprise supports near-term re-rating · quality: ROE 2% · margin 3% · rev -0%
why: Direct Q2 profit rise for CU.TO. Utility, low beta, so modest move; some of it likely already in the tape.
CAT US Caterpillar Inc. short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · analyst downgrade / data-center demand risk ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Downgrade tied to NY data-center moratorium hits CAT's power-gen and infrastructure order outlook · quality: ROE 51% · margin 13% · rev +22%
why: Sell-side downgrade plus a named policy driver (data-center moratorium) hitting the reciprocating-engine/genset growth story; downgrades keep bleeding for days.
GMIN.TO TSX G MINING VENTURES CORP watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · M&A close ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑6%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
+14.6%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 42.10 TARGET 44.63 (+6%) STOP 39.99 (-5%) ✓ clears · +5.5% net · R:R 1.0
Chain: G Mining Ventures closes arrangement with G2 Goldfields, adding Guyana gold assets · quality: ROE 24% · margin 55% · rev +43%
why: Deal close is a known event so largely priced, but share issuance/index-weight and Guyana resource add can still move a mid-cap gold name.
NKE US Nike, Inc. short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · China demand deterioration (-30%) ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: CNBC reports Nike China sales down 30% as domestic 'China Chic' brands take share, pressuring a key growth region ahead of results · quality: ROE 22% · margin 7% · rev -1%
why: China weakness is partly known, but a 30% decline framed as structural share loss to local brands is worse than a cyclical dip.
PWR US Quanta Services watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand
Target
↑5%
Horizon
20d · 20 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 571.23 TARGET 599.79 (+5%) STOP 542.67 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: AI firms hire electricians/carpenters by the thousands → Skilled electrical labour becomes the binding constraint on datacenter delivery → Large unionized electrical contractors gain pricing power and backlog · quality: ROE 14% · margin 4% · rev +26%
why: Labour scarcity story is a demand proxy for electrical contracting capacity; PWR is the largest listed beneficiary. Theme partly priced.
CBRE US CBRE Group watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · earnings beat on data-center work, record Q2 lea
Target
↑6%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 149.52 TARGET 158.50 (+6%) STOP 142.05 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +2.5% net · R:R 0.29
Chain: CBRE reports an earnings spike driven by data-center work and its best-ever Q2 leasing · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Clean earnings beat with a structural data-center driver; post-earnings drift is one of the more durable effects.
CIGI.TO TSX COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL GROUP IN watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° competitor
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
-2.6%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 145.65 TARGET 151.48 (+4%) STOP 138.37 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: CBRE posts record Q2 leasing and data-center-driven earnings → Signals a broad commercial-real-estate services recovery, not a company-specific win → Colliers, the closest TSX-listed peer, gets read across ahead of its own print · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Peer read-through in CRE services is a well-worn chain; TSX repricing typically lags the US print by a session or two.
BXP US BXP, Inc. watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · FFO beat + raised FY view
Target
↑5%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 74.21 TARGET 77.92 (+5%) STOP 70.49 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: BXP beats Q2 FFO on occupancy/leasing/NOI gains and raises full-year 2026 FFO outlook · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Office REIT occupancy inflection plus a guidance raise is a higher-surprise setup than a typical beat.
YUM US Yum! Brands short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · food-safety outbreak / litigation
Target
↓6%
Horizon
21d · 21 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
Chain: Nine-state cyclospora outbreak tied to Taco Bell and Taylor Farms hits 1,947 confirmed illnesses with plaintiff counsel publicizing it; traffic and litigation risk at Yum's largest US brand · quality: margin 20% · rev +15%
why: Case count near 2,000 and no washable remedy means the story extends; Chipotle 2015 shows same-store traffic damage lags headlines.
ODFL US Old Dominion watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat
Target
↑5%
Horizon
7d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 222.93 TARGET 234.08 (+5%) STOP 211.78 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: ODFL Q2 EPS +32.3%, beat on yield and cost discipline despite soft freight volumes — margin execution in a weak freight tape is a genuine positive surprise · quality: ROE 23% · margin 18% · rev -3%
why: Real beat, but earnings-day gap is largely same-session. Residual drift only.
LUN.TO TSX LUNDIN MINING CORP. short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · operational disruption / production risk ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
+12.2%
Model: priced-in
70%
Chain: Chile storm disrupts Caserones mine operations; Lundin Mining shares down 7.8% on copper output risk · quality: ROE 22% · margin 34% · rev +26%
why: Weather-driven outage at a core copper asset; sell-off likely mostly priced but headline risk persists until output guidance clarified.
HII US Huntington Ingalls Industries watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 280.40 TARGET 294.42 (+5%) STOP 266.38 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: Electric Boat wins $72B submarine award → Newport News Shipbuilding is the co-builder on Virginia/Columbia class work → HII books its share of the same program volume · quality: ROE 12% · margin 5% · rev +13%
why: Headline itself names Newport News; market often reprices the prime first and the co-builder slower.
FVI.TO TSX FORTUNA MINING CORP watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · approved 30% mine expansion / production growth ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
+14.6%
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 11.75 TARGET 12.34 (+5%) STOP 11.16 (-5%) ✓ clears · +4.5% net · R:R 0.82
Chain: Fortuna approves 30% capacity expansion at Séguéla, targeting 500koz consolidated gold by 2028 — a board-sanctioned growth capex decision at its flagship low-cost mine · quality: ROE 22% · margin 31% · rev +76%
why: Direct company catalyst: approved expansion at flagship mine, explicit path to 500koz by 2028. Ivory Coast jurisdiction risk caps the move.
WN.TO TSX WESTON GEORGE watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° capital-flow ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
-3.7%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 105.87 TARGET 109.05 (+3%) STOP 100.58 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Loblaw posts Q2 revenue +4.1% and adj. EPS +11.9% → George Weston's principal asset is its majority stake in Loblaw → Holdco NAV and look-through earnings rise; market reprices WN with a lag · quality: ROE 19% · margin 2% · rev +4%
why: WN is a Loblaw-plus-Choice holdco; subsidiary beats flow to NAV but holdco trades with a lag/discount, so the reprice is slower than L itself.
APD US Air Products watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · guidance raise despite loss ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 294.27 TARGET 306.04 (+4%) STOP 279.56 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Air Products slips to a Q3 loss but raises Q4 and FY26 EPS outlook · quality: ROE 12% · margin 17% · rev +9%
why: Headline loss is likely a non-cash project writedown; the raised forward EPS is what the market trades. Direction is up but the loss line adds two-way risk.
AOS US A. O. Smith short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings miss + FY guidance narrowed ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓6%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: A.O. Smith reports lower Q2 profit AND declining sales, and narrows the FY profit outlook — a two-sided negative that typically extends over several sessions · quality: ROE 28% · margin 14% · rev -2%
why: Profit AND sales down with a guidance narrow. Mid-cap industrial, less analyst coverage than mega-caps, so post-print drift is more likely.
MLM US Martin Marietta Materials short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 profit decline ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
Chain: Martin Marietta reports a drop in Q2 income year-over-year — aggregates pricing/volume disappointment reprices the construction-materials multiple · quality: ROE 9% · margin 40% · rev +17%
why: Clean direct earnings miss on an S&P 500 name. RTTNews headline states the drop plainly; no offsetting guidance detail in this batch.
IAU.TO TSX I 80 GOLD CORP watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · 8-K Reg FD disclosure (6 MB, technical report)
Target
↑8%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
+17.7%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 1.81 TARGET 1.95 (+8%) STOP 1.72 (-5%) ✓ clears · +7.5% net · R:R 1.36
Chain: i-80 Gold files an 8-K Item 7.01 Reg FD with 6 MB of exhibits — a filing that size is a technical/economic study, a real information event for a small-cap developer · quality: ROE -77% · margin -177% · rev +273%
why: Primary filing on a universe name. Direction unverified — content unread, so this is size/type inference only. Small-cap gold reacts hard to study releases.
ARX.TO TSX ARC RESOURCES LTD. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° demand-shock
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
-1.5%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 32.86 TARGET 34.17 (+4%) STOP 31.22 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Ksi Lisims LNG signs 20-year supply deal with Uniper → Added BC export capacity pulls on Montney supply → AECO discount to Henry Hub narrows structurally → ARC Resources, a top Montney gas producer, gains on realized price · quality: ROE 17% · margin 23% · rev +20%
why: Same Montney egress chain as TOU; ARX is gas-weighted with direct BC/LNG-linked marketing exposure.
WAB US Wabtec watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat + guidance raise ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 292.46 TARGET 304.16 (+4%) STOP 277.84 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Wabtec posts strong earnings and guidance, shares hit new highs · quality: ROE 12% · margin 11% · rev +18%
why: Classic post-earnings-announcement drift setup: beat plus raise plus new high. Most of the gap is already in the price.
CPT US Camden Property Trust short · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · earnings miss / lower revenue ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
Chain: Camden Property Trust reports lower Q2 revenue and earnings; softening Sunbelt apartment fundamentals pressure FFO guidance · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Declining revenue and earnings at an apartment REIT; residential REIT weakness usually carries into guidance-driven downgrades.
FCX US Freeport-McMoRan watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° supply-shock ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
14d · 14 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 63.44 TARGET 66.61 (+5%) STOP 60.27 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: US restricts export of critical-minerals scrap → Copper scrap is a major secondary refined-supply input; flows get administratively disrupted → US-domiciled primary copper producer benefits from tighter domestic refined balance · quality: ROE 15% · margin 11% · rev -7%
why: Scrap curbs are a copper-supply story first; largest US primary producer is the cleanest listed expression.
AMAT US Applied Materials watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 501.77 TARGET 521.84 (+4%) STOP 476.68 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Lam Research beats and raises fiscal Q4 on wafer-fab-equipment demand → WFE spending is a shared end-market — the raise signals broader fab capex, not Lam share gain → Applied Materials re-rates on the same capex cycle before its own print · quality: ROE 40% · margin 29% · rev +11%
why: Classic semicap read-through: a Lam raise is a WFE-cycle datapoint. AMAT usually moves same-session, so much is priced — edge is in the multi-day follow-through.
CBOE US Cboe Global Markets watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings beat, record revenue ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 296.52 TARGET 308.38 (+4%) STOP 281.69 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Cboe reports diluted EPS $3.35 up 50%, adjusted $3.56 up 45%, record net revenue — a large beat on a low-beta exchange name that usually reprices over days · quality: ROE 25% · margin 26% · rev +6%
why: Record revenue and +45-50% EPS growth is a clean direct catalyst; exchange names drift on volume-driven beats.
IVZ US Invesco short · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° competitor ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓2%
Horizon
30d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: State Street launches a Nasdaq-100 ETF rivaling Invesco's QQQ → QQQ is Invesco's flagship, high-AUM fee earner → new low-cost competitor pressures fee/flow growth for IVZ · quality: ROE -2% · margin -4% · rev +14%
why: Direct competitor to Invesco's flagship QQQ; slow, small fee-pressure threat to IVZ — low conviction, likely largely noise near-term.
FM.TO TSX FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LTD short · log-only ◆ OK 2° substitution ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
30d · 6 left
Since entry
+14.8%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Ferrari/BMW join Tesla & China switching wiring from copper to cheaper aluminium → structural copper demand erosion in autos → weighs on copper miner sentiment · quality: ROE -2% · margin -4% · rev +18%
why: Auto substitution away from copper is a slow structural headwind for copper miners; low-conviction, long-horizon sentiment drag.
WSP.TO TSX WSP GLOBAL INC watch · log-only ◆ OK 3° input-demand
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
+4.6%
Model: priced-in
85%
BUY 173.20 TARGET 176.66 (+2%) STOP 164.54 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: Meta announces ~$10B first Canadian data center investment → Large-scale data center build requires major infrastructure/engineering contractors → WSP Global, a leading NA infrastructure engineering firm with data-center project experience, is a plausible beneficiary · quality: ROE 10% · margin 5% · rev +4%
why: Speculative link: no confirmed contractor named, but WSP is a top candidate for engineering/design work on hyperscale builds.
TA.TO TSX TRANSALTA CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° demand-shock
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
-12.8%
Model: priced-in
25%
BUY 20.35 TARGET 20.96 (+3%) STOP 19.33 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Meta announces $13B AI data center build in Alberta → New hyperscale load adds materially to Alberta's deregulated power grid demand → TransAlta, a merchant power generator concentrated in Alberta, captures higher volumes/prices · quality: ROE -11% · margin -8% · rev -26%
why: Alberta's merchant grid is undersupplied; a $13B hyperscale load add is a slow-to-reprice tailwind for Alberta-exposed generators like TransAlta.
ALL US Allstate short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · state lawsuit / legal-regulatory risk
Target
↓2%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Oklahoma AG sues Allstate alleging systematic underpayment of damages claims · quality: ROE 45% · margin 18% · rev +3%
why: State AG suit adds legal/regulatory overhang; early-stage litigation so modest near-term price impact expected.
H.TO TSX HYDRO ONE LIMITED watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
-2.6%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 58.59 TARGET 59.76 (+2%) STOP 55.66 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: Meta to build $9B AI data centre in Canada → Large data centres are power-intensive, benefiting Canadian grid/utility capex · quality: ROE 11% · margin 15% · rev +10%
why: Speculative: headline doesn't name a province, so utility beneficiary is a guess based on the AI-datacentre-power theme.
GEHC US GE HealthCare watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · clinical collaboration ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 64.70 TARGET 65.99 (+2%) STOP 61.46 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: GE HealthCare and Mayo Clinic announced collaboration on adaptive cancer theranostics · quality: ROE 19% · margin 9% · rev +7%
why: New oncology imaging/theranostics partnership with a top academic medical center; modest, longer-horizon positive.
FE US FirstEnergy short · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · regulatory complaint ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓2%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Maryland state agencies file FERC complaint to end 0.5% PJM RTO return adder earned by FirstEnergy transmission subsidiaries · quality: ROE 9% · margin 7% · rev +12%
why: Same FERC complaint targets FirstEnergy's PJM RTO return adder; small negative earnings impact if adder removed, regulatory process is slow.
SBUX US Starbucks watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · cost cut / margin ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 106.01 TARGET 108.13 (+2%) STOP 100.71 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Starbucks replaces Microsoft/IBM enterprise software with proprietary AI platforms, targeting $400M spend cut · quality: margin 4% · rev +9%
why: $400M cost-out is ~1% of SBUX revenue, margin-positive; modest but real self-help catalyst amid ongoing turnaround narrative.
MG.TO TSX MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC short · log-only ◆ OK 2° demand-shock ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
+10.4%
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: VW seeks to halve model lineup and shrink production capacity to cut costs → Magna is a major VW-group parts supplier, so reduced VW output lowers Magna order volumes · quality: ROE 6% · margin 2% · rev +3%
why: VW is a significant Magna customer; a lineup/capacity cut is a plausible but indirect demand headwind for MG.TO.
NFLX US Netflix watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · product/strategy expansion ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
65%
BUY 73.37 TARGET 75.57 (+3%) STOP 69.70 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Netflix reportedly considering launch of live TV channels · quality: ROE 48% · margin 29% · rev +16%
why: Speculative single-source regional-wire pickup on a strategy already partly known (NFL/WWE live content); low conviction, mostly priced.
CLS.TO TSX CELESTICA INC watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
-0.3%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 509.88 TARGET 525.18 (+3%) STOP 484.39 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Google/Amazon-driven NA data-center pipeline growth signals rising hyperscaler capex → Celestica supplies servers/networking hardware to hyperscale cloud customers benefiting from that capex · quality: ROE 52% · margin 7% · rev +53%
why: Rising hyperscaler data-center buildout is a demand tailwind for Celestica's CCS segment, which manufactures hardware for cloud/hyperscale customers.
NVDA US Nvidia short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° substitution ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓2%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: Meta develops 'Iris' custom AI chip to reduce Nvidia GPU dependency → Slower growth in Nvidia GPU orders from one of its largest hyperscaler customers · quality: ROE 114% · margin 63% · rev +85%
why: Hyperscaler in-housing of AI silicon is a slow-moving but real headwind to Nvidia's customer concentration; already well-flagged theme.
CSCO US Cisco short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · bearish analyst thesis: sustained share erosion ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
20d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: Cisco losing switching/data-network share to Arista, HPE, and white-box vendors; author rates CSCO a sell · quality: ROE 25% · margin 20% · rev +12%
why: Single opinion piece, not fresh news, but a specific competitive-erosion thesis with a named sell call — low-moderate conviction.
PFE US Pfizer watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° demand-shock ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
75%
BUY 24.48 TARGET 24.97 (+2%) STOP 23.26 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: European Commission approves Erbitux (cetuximab) + encorafenib + FOLFOX for first-line BRAF V600E mCRC → Encorafenib (Braftovi) is Pfizer's oncology asset via Array BioPharma → Expanded first-line EU indication grows addressable patient population / incremental revenue · quality: ROE 8% · margin 12% · rev +5%
why: EU approval named the Merck KGaA drug directly, but encorafenib in the combo is Pfizer's Braftovi — modest, partially-priced nth-order label expansion.
BMY US Bristol Myers Squibb watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · FDA filing progress / pipeline
Target
↑2%
Horizon
21d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 58.17 TARGET 59.33 (+2%) STOP 55.26 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: BMY files mezigdomide with FDA for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma, advancing CELMoD/protein-degrader pipeline · quality: ROE 39% · margin 15% · rev +3%
why: Regulatory filing step for a real pipeline asset; incremental, not transformative.
AMGN US Amgen short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓2%
Horizon
20d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: Merck wins FDA approval for an oral cholesterol pill → Convenient oral option threatens share of injectable PCSK9 franchises like Amgen's Repatha · quality: ROE 101% · margin 21% · rev +6%
why: An approved oral cholesterol pill is a more convenient competitor to Amgen's injectable Repatha, a mild share-loss overhang.
MRNA US Moderna short · log-only ◆ OK 2° geo-policy ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
20d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: RFK Jr dismantles federal vaccine policy → reduced recommendations/coverage cut demand for vaccine makers → Moderna vaccine franchise revenue at risk · quality: ROE -37% · margin -144% · rev +260%
why: Ongoing narrative already weighing on vaccine names; incremental policy escalation, not a fresh discrete catalyst.
MO US Altria watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · favorable FDA rule vs foreign makers
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 72.08 TARGET 74.24 (+3%) STOP 68.48 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Proposed FDA rule targets foreign tobacco/illicit-vape imports → relieves competitive pressure on domestic Altria → constructive outlook · quality: margin 40% · rev +5%
why: Regulatory tailwind vs foreign/illicit competitors helps domestic Altria, but it's a proposal-stage outlook piece, slow-moving and partly discounted.
RCI-B.TO TSX ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS INC., CL. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · MLSE buyout financing progress
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 7 left
Since entry
-3.0%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 48.95 TARGET 49.93 (+2%) STOP 46.50 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: Rogers seeks deep-pocket investors to help fund its MLSE buyout → Bringing in outside capital de-risks Rogers' balance-sheet strain from the acquisition · quality: ROE 41% · margin 32% · rev +10%
why: Seeking equity partners to fund MLSE buyout eases leverage concerns; incremental, not a hard catalyst — low conviction.
ATD.TO TSX ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD INC short · log-only ◆ OK 2° competitor ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
21d · 11 left
Since entry
+1.3%
Model: priced-in
25%
Chain: Seven & i is reported to be in stake talks with Polish convenience chain Zabka → Couche-Tard's growth thesis rests on being the consolidator of European convenience retail, and it previously pursued Seven & i itself → A re-energised, expanding Seven & i raises the price of European targets and narrows ATD's M&A runway · quality: ROE 20% · margin 4% · rev -22%
why: Rival bidder for European convenience assets pressures ATD's consolidation runway and deal pricing. Slow-burn thesis, weak near-term.
CJT.TO TSX CARGOJET INC. watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° supply-shock
Target
↑6%
Horizon
20d · 8 left
Since entry
+3.5%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 85.67 TARGET 90.81 (+6%) STOP 81.39 (-5%) ✓ clears · +5.5% net · R:R 1.0
Chain: Iran war disrupts air freight capacity/routing → 2026 air cargo rates seen +15% → pure-play air cargo carrier Cargojet earns higher yields · quality: ROE 5% · margin 4% · rev +2%
why: Higher air cargo rates lift a pure-play freighter's yields; CJT is the cleanest TSX beneficiary. Fuel-cost offset caps upside, hence modest.
LMT US Lockheed Martin watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · expanded missile contracts ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
15d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 508.77 TARGET 524.03 (+3%) STOP 483.33 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Lockheed expands missile production under new US agreements amid rising defense demand · quality: ROE 68% · margin 6% · rev +0%
why: New US missile-defense agreements plus Mideast escalation backdrop support order flow; modest upside, partly priced.
REGN US Regeneron Pharmaceuticals short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° substitution ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
21d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: FDA clears first ORAL PCSK9 (Merck Lipfendra) → oral option erodes injectable Praluent (Regeneron/Sanofi) → lower LDL-lowering franchise value · quality: ROE 15% · margin 30% · rev +19%
why: Praluent is a smaller piece of REGN, but an oral PCSK9 still pressures the injectable class.
OGC.TO TSX OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · capex commitment / valuation ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
20d · 8 left
Since entry
+19.9%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 31.42 TARGET 32.68 (+4%) STOP 29.85 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: OceanaGold commits $2b to Didipio expansion → growth optionality flagged as ~52% undervalued · quality: ROE 35% · margin 34% · rev +98%
why: Universe name with real capex news, but simplywall.st valuation piece is low-signal and $2b commitment cuts both ways; modest.
CP.TO TSX CANADIAN PACIFIC KANSAS CITY LI watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° competitor ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
25d · 15 left
Since entry
-2.5%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 131.34 TARGET 135.28 (+3%) STOP 124.77 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Opinion/regulatory pushback on Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger → Prolonged STB review raises odds of shipper-friendly conditions or delay → CPKC, the only existing single-line US-Mexico-Canada railroad, keeps its network-scope advantage longer · quality: ROE 8% · margin 27% · rev -2%
why: Merger friction preserves CPKC's unique single-line continental franchise; low conviction, opinion-piece grounded only.
MFI.TO TSX MAPLE LEAF FOODS watch · log-only ◆ OK 3° substitution ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
30d · 25 left
Since entry
-3.0%
Model: priced-in
20%
BUY 29.27 TARGET 30.44 (+4%) STOP 27.81 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: US cattle herd contraction drives record imported-beef demand (NZ sales +60%) → North American protein prices stay elevated → Consumers and processors substitute toward pork/poultry/packaged protein → Maple Leaf Foods' pork and prepared-meats pricing power improves · quality: ROE 5% · margin 14% · rev +6%
why: Beef scarcity is a durable multi-quarter substitution tailwind for pork/poultry processors.
MX.TO TSX METHANEX CORP short · log-only ◆ OK 3° supply-cost ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
21d · 12 left
Since entry
-5.1%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: European chemical Q2 earnings to test whether conflict-led pricing gains hold → Weak underlying demand read-through would confirm soft global petrochemical end-markets → Methanex, a pure-play global methanol producer, is repriced on the same demand signal while feedstock gas costs rise with the oil complex · quality: ROE 1% · margin -1% · rev +9%
why: Chemical demand read-through plus oil-linked feedstock inflation is a two-sided negative for methanol margins.
MFC.TO TSX MANULIFE FIN watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 4° capital-flow ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
21d · 12 left
Since entry
+2.8%
Model: priced-in
25%
BUY 60.74 TARGET 63.78 (+5%) STOP 57.70 (-5%) ✓ clears · +4.5% net · R:R 0.82
Chain: Energy price spike lifts headline inflation → Fed inflation forecast red flag + ECB rate-rise odds rise → Long-end yields back up → Life insurers' liability discount rates rise, book value and spread income improve · quality: ROE 13% · margin 20% · rev +12%
why: Lifecos are the cleanest long-rate beneficiaries; a hawkish inflation surprise steepens the curve. Slow-repricing, lower conviction.
TMUS US T-Mobile US watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Rival retail retreat ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
21d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 192.43 TARGET 198.20 (+3%) STOP 182.81 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: A key wireless rival pulls back from retail distribution, ceding switcher share to T-Mobile's store footprint · quality: ROE 18% · margin 12% · rev +11%
why: Share-shift thesis is real but slow-burning and the headline is opinion-framed, not a filing. Low conviction, modest size.
IFF US International Flavors & Fragrances watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Divestiture — botanicals/vitamins portfolio to S ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 78.20 TARGET 80.55 (+3%) STOP 74.29 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: IFF agrees to sell its botanical extracts, vitamins/minerals and food enhancement portfolio, continuing deleveraging and portfolio simplification · quality: ROE 6% · margin 8% · rev -4%
why: Deleveraging is the bull case for IFF, but no price disclosed in the headline — size unknown, so conviction stays low.
BNS.TO TSX BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↑3%
Horizon
21d · 12 left
Since entry
-0.8%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 125.10 TARGET 128.85 (+3%) STOP 118.84 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: June Canadian inflation eases to 2.8% on lower gas prices → Raises odds the BoC holds/eases rather than tightens → Rate-sensitive Canadian bank funding costs and credit outlook improve · quality: ROE 11% · margin 28% · rev +13%
why: Softer CPI is a mild dovish input for Canadian financials; CPI prints are fast-priced, so conviction and size stay low.
GRT-UN.TO TSX GRANITE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT watch · log-only ◆ OK 3° capital-flow
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 11 left
Since entry
-7.4%
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 100.79 TARGET 103.81 (+3%) STOP 95.75 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: LXP bought at a premium by Brookfield/CPPIB → Private capital signals industrial logistics assets undervalued in public markets → Granite REIT, a TSX industrial-logistics landlord, gets re-rated / M&A-speculation bid · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Third-order sector read-through to the other TSX industrial-logistics REIT. Thinner link than DIR-UN, hence lower conviction.
FNV.TO TSX FRANCO-NEVADA CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings date set
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 1 left
Since entry
+12.9%
Model: priced-in
70%
BUY 281.36 TARGET 289.80 (+3%) STOP 267.29 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Franco-Nevada confirms Q2 2026 results date — scheduling notice, not a result; low information content · quality: ROE 19% · margin 66% · rev +78%
why: Earnings-date announcement only. Directional read is weak; flagged as an upcoming catalyst window for a TSX royalty name, not a signal.
BBUC.TO TSX BROOKFIELD BUSINESS CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° capital-flow
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 1 left
Since entry
+0.2%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 42.80 TARGET 44.08 (+3%) STOP 40.66 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Brookfield acquires Gregg Distributors ($1.6B), an industrial-distribution business → Industrial-services buyouts are Brookfield Business Partners' mandate — BBUC is the listed vehicle for that segment → Deal flow into industrial distribution supports BBUC NAV/pipeline narrative · quality: ROE 2% · margin -0% · rev -5%
why: Headline does not name which Brookfield entity; BBUC is the industrials vehicle so attribution is inferred, not stated. Speculative.
GWW US W. W. Grainger watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings preview / beat setup
Target
↑4%
Horizon
21d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 1370.81 TARGET 1425.65 (+4%) STOP 1302.27 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Sell-side flags Grainger's history of beating estimates ahead of its next report; pre-earnings drift into the print · quality: ROE 46% · margin 10% · rev +10%
why: Preview piece, not new information — low conviction; the beat-again framing is a soft pre-earnings drift signal only.
MSFT US Microsoft watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · broker reiteration into earnings
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
70%
BUY 401.09 TARGET 413.12 (+3%) STOP 381.04 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Bank of America reiterates/raises on Microsoft ahead of the print, framing Azure/AI as the driver into a dateable earnings catalyst · quality: ROE 34% · margin 39% · rev +18%
why: Single-house reiteration on a mega-cap is largely priced; only tradeable as earnings-date positioning.
CAH US Cardinal Health watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · tuck-in M&A ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 225.75 TARGET 232.52 (+3%) STOP 214.46 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Cardinal Health signs two definitive agreements expanding at-home care; modest accretion and strategic read-through to its higher-margin segment · quality: margin 1% · rev +11%
why: Real primary-source M&A, but tuck-in scale on a large cap — small move, low conviction.
IFC.TO TSX INTACT FINANCIAL CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 1 left
Since entry
-4.0%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 294.39 TARGET 303.22 (+3%) STOP 279.67 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: W. R. Berkley Q2 profit advances → Signals still-healthy commercial P&C pricing/underwriting margins → Intact Financial is the Canadian P&C pure-play on the same cycle · quality: ROE 17% · margin 13% · rev +4%
why: Canadian P&C names track US commercial-lines margin news with a lag; Intact is the cleanest TSX proxy.
CNR.TO TSX CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO. short · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° demand-shock ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
21d · 12 left
Since entry
+0.3%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: US sets 50% tariff on some Canadian goods → Cross-border shipments of affected categories fall → CN's US-bound carload volumes and pricing power soften · quality: ROE 22% · margin 27% · rev -0%
why: Rail is the toll booth on Canada-US trade; volume effects lag headlines by weeks, so market repricing is slow but modest.
EFX.TO TSX ENERFLEX LTD short · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° demand-shock ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
14d · 1 left
Since entry
-5.4%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: SLB flagged as facing a ~31% profit drop as Middle East disruptions hit oilfield services → Conflict disrupts activity/logistics in the region, cutting service-company revenue not producer revenue → Read-across marks down energy-equipment and services names broadly, including Canadian energy-infrastructure/equipment providers · quality: ROE 7% · margin 3% · rev +6%
why: Key nuance: the conflict is bullish producers but bearish services. Sector read-across to Canadian energy-equipment names is usually slow.
ZBH US Zimmer Biomet short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · trade-secret litigation vs former exec ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
21d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Zimmer Biomet sues a former executive over alleged trade-secret theft, signalling competitive IP leakage risk · quality: ROE 6% · margin 9% · rev +9%
why: Low-conviction: company is plaintiff, not defendant. Minor negative signal on IP/talent leakage; small expected move.
WFG.TO TSX WEST FRASER TIMBER CO LTD short · log-only ◆ OK 2° geo-policy ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓6%
Horizon
14d · 4 left
Since entry
+2.6%
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: Broad 50% US tariff list on Canadian imports → Canadian lumber/building-products shipments to US become uneconomic at the margin → West Fraser volumes shift or margins compress · quality: ROE -19% · margin -22% · rev -9%
why: Lumber is a perennial tariff target and West Fraser is the most US-exposed Canadian producer in the universe.
IVN.TO TSX IVANHOE MINES LTD watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · guidance reaffirmed + valuation note ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
21d · 13 left
Since entry
+15.8%
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 9.87 TARGET 10.36 (+5%) STOP 9.38 (-5%) ✓ clears · +4.5% net · R:R 0.82
Chain: Ivanhoe Mines reaffirmed 2026 production guidance, removing operational-uncertainty discount after prior Kakula disruptions · quality: ROE 2% · margin 25% · rev +115%
why: Reaffirmed 2026 guidance is a real de-risking event for a copper developer; sell-side undervaluation framing adds flow. Modest, largely known.
TOU.TO TSX TOURMALINE OIL CORP watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° supply-shock ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
25d · 19 left
Since entry
-5.3%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 62.48 TARGET 64.98 (+4%) STOP 59.36 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Enbridge Sunrise expansion begins construction near Prince George → More BC/Montney takeaway capacity narrows AECO-to-market basis differentials → Montney-weighted producers realize better netbacks on the same volumes · quality: ROE 4% · margin 15% · rev +4%
why: Egress is the binding constraint on Montney netbacks; incremental capacity is a slow-repricing basis story, not a headline pop.
CEU.TO TSX CES ENERGY SOLUTIONS CORP watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
15d · 5 left
Since entry
-1.6%
Model: priced-in
20%
BUY 16.59 TARGET 17.25 (+4%) STOP 15.76 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Halliburton posts Q2 results with North American completions commentary → NAM pressure-pumping/completions activity read-through sets the sector tone → CES Energy Solutions' drilling-fluids demand tracks the same NAM activity · quality: ROE 25% · margin 8% · rev +8%
why: Canadian OFS reprices off the US bellwether's activity commentary with a lag; direction uncertain, hence low conviction.
TRP.TO TSX TC ENERGY CORP. watch · log-only ◆ OK 3° substitution ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 12 left
Since entry
-7.1%
Model: priced-in
20%
BUY 96.35 TARGET 99.24 (+3%) STOP 91.53 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Houthi blockade threatens seaborne hydrocarbon transit → Buyers bid for secure non-seaborne North American supply → Canadian pipeline/egress operators gain volume and tariff pricing power · quality: ROE 11% · margin 22% · rev +7%
why: Slower-repricing infrastructure beneficiary of shipping-lane risk; modest move.
HOOD US Robinhood Markets watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · product/venue expansion
Target
↑4%
Horizon
15d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 104.94 TARGET 109.14 (+4%) STOP 99.69 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Robinhood-backed DEX Arcus adds tokenized stocks and perps on Robinhood Chain, extending Robinhood's onchain product surface and fee pool · quality: ROE 21% · margin 41% · rev +15%
why: Real product news tied to Robinhood Chain; crypto/tokenization headlines move HOOD, though second-hand via a partner entity.
BYD.TO TSX BOYD GROUP SERVICES INC watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° input-demand
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 4 left
Since entry
+1.8%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 142.80 TARGET 148.51 (+4%) STOP 135.66 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: GPC reports Q2 sales +6% y/y with FY outlook reaffirmed → North American auto aftermarket/collision parts demand holding up → Boyd Group is the TSX collision-repair proxy on the same aftermarket volume cycle · quality: ROE 1% · margin 0% · rev +28%
why: Aftermarket parts demand read-through to Canada's collision-repair consolidator; slower-repriced nth-order link, not a BYD-specific catalyst.
AIF.TO TSX ALTUS GROUP LIMITED watch · log-only ◆ OK 3° input-demand
Target
↑4%
Horizon
21d · 13 left
Since entry
+2.4%
Model: priced-in
15%
BUY 45.69 TARGET 47.52 (+4%) STOP 43.41 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Equifax beats Q2 on data/analytics revenue → Signals resilient mortgage-inquiry and credit-data volumes in North America → Altus Group sells property data/analytics into the same real-estate credit workflow · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Third-order data/analytics-into-real-estate read-through; thin link, low conviction, included only because the direction is coherent.
INCY US Incyte watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · licensing deal
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 117.94 TARGET 121.48 (+3%) STOP 112.04 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Incyte licenses Halozyme ENHANZE for subcutaneous cancer therapy formulations → lifecycle extension optionality · quality: ROE 31% · margin 27% · rev +21%
why: SC reformulation rights extend franchise durability, but economics undisclosed and impact is years out.
FICO US Fair Isaac short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
14d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
Chain: Equifax holds VantageScore 4.0 at $1 through 2027, undercutting on mortgage credit-score pricing → VantageScore is the FHFA-approved alternative to FICO for mortgages; a locked-low price accelerates lender adoption and caps FICO's aggressive royalty hikes → Market reprices FICO's mortgage pricing-power narrative lower · quality: margin 34% · rev +39%
why: VantageScore price hold is competitive/regulatory pressure on FICO's mortgage royalty pricing power; theme partly known, low-moderate conviction.
CHTR US Charter Communications watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · M&A regulatory progress ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
20d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 127.79 TARGET 131.62 (+3%) STOP 121.40 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Charter-Cox merger framed as consumer-beneficial, supporting regulatory approval path · quality: ROE 28% · margin 9% · rev -1%
why: Favorable-approval framing marginally de-risks the Charter-Cox deal, but it's an opinion piece not a regulatory ruling — low conviction.
PG US Procter & Gamble watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° capital-flow ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 148.10 TARGET 152.54 (+3%) STOP 140.70 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: AI/tech selloff worsens → capital rotates out of high-beta AI names into low-vol staples → Procter & Gamble bid as defensive haven · quality: ROE 31% · margin 19% · rev +7%
why: Thematic rotation trade, not a company catalyst — conditional on the selloff persisting. Low conviction; staples get bid when tech breaks.
GILD US Gilead Sciences watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · clinical data readout ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 130.28 TARGET 134.19 (+3%) STOP 123.77 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Gilead to present long-term lenacapavir HIV efficacy/safety data at AIDS 2026 -> positive franchise sentiment · quality: ROE 43% · margin 31% · rev +4%
why: Conference data on key lenacapavir franchise is a soft catalyst; low magnitude, headline-risk on details.
GRMN US Garmin watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · new product launch (CIRQA smart band) ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
14d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 236.65 TARGET 241.38 (+2%) STOP 224.82 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Garmin launches screenless, subscription-free smart band; modest new wearable SKU · quality: ROE 20% · margin 23% · rev +14%
why: Minor product-line addition, not a needle-mover for a large-cap; low conviction, small magnitude.
BLX.TO TSX BORALEX INC. watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° geo-policy
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 13 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 37.04 TARGET 37.79 (+2%) STOP 35.19 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: France to pay record €9.75B renewables aid in 2027 → supports economics for France solar/wind producers → Boralex is a pure-play with large French wind/solar base · quality: ROE 0% · margin -4% · rev +21%
why: Chronic, well-telegraphed subsidy program; incremental support for BLX France ops. Low conviction.
CURA.TO TSX CURALEAF HOLDINGS INC watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · Spain entry + new FL dispensary
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 5 left
Since entry
-12.6%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 13.40 TARGET 13.94 (+4%) STOP 12.73 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Curaleaf opens new Florida dispensary and enters Spain, expanding footprint · quality: ROE -9% · margin -8% · rev +6%
why: Direct expansion catalyst but incremental (one dispensary + market entry), and it's an opinion framing; small-cap cannabis, low conviction.
OTEX.TO TSX OPEN TEXT CORPORATION short · log-only ◆ OK 2° demand-shock
Target
↓3%
Horizon
14d · 5 left
Since entry
+15.9%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: Pega/IBM/NOW signal enterprise buyers delaying software orders → Read-through hits other enterprise software vendors → Open Text (enterprise info-mgmt software) repriced lower · quality: ROE 13% · margin 10% · rev +2%
why: Broadening enterprise-software order-deferral signal is a sector demand read; OTEX is a Canadian enterprise-software name slower to reprice. Speculative, low conviction.
PET.TO TSX PET VALU HOLDINGS LTD short · log-only ◆ OK 2° demand-shock ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
20d · 13 left
Since entry
+1.1%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: pet ownership becoming a luxury, fewer vet visits, shrinking pet population → weaker pet-spend backdrop pressures pet retailers → Pet Valu, a pure-play pet retailer, faces same demand headwind · quality: ROE 99% · margin 8% · rev +3%
why: US-survey read-through to Canadian pet retailer; thematic not company-specific, so weak/slow. Sentiment drag only.
WDAY US Workday, Inc. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · FedRAMP Moderate authorization ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
14d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 132.42 TARGET 135.07 (+2%) STOP 125.80 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Workday Adaptive Planning wins FedRAMP Moderate authorization, opening US federal agency sales · quality: ROE 11% · margin 9% · rev +14%
why: Incremental TAM expansion into federal, not a needle-mover on WDAY's size; minor and slow-burn, low conviction.
TRI.TO TSX THOMSON REUTERS CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 14 left
Since entry
+14.7%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 119.91 TARGET 122.31 (+2%) STOP 113.91 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: Google hit with large EU fine → heightened regulatory/antitrust scrutiny raises corporate demand for compliance, legal and regulatory data → Thomson Reuters (legal/compliance data) flagged as beneficiary · quality: ROE 13% · margin 20% · rev +10%
why: Speculative narrative link: Google EU fine cited as a compliance-demand tailwind for TRI; opinion-piece basis, low conviction and likely already partly reflected.
RUS.TO TSX RUSSEL METALS short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↓6%
Horizon
14d · 7 left
Since entry
+1.9%
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: US tariffs on Canadian goods at 50% → Canadian steel/metals distribution into US repriced or blocked → Volume and spread compression at Russel Metals · quality: ROE 12% · margin 4% · rev +21%
why: Russel is a Canadian metals distributor with meaningful cross-border steel flow; a 50% tariff pressures volumes and pricing, though partly hedged by domestic mix.
ACN US Accenture short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor
Target
↓3%
Horizon
14d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Infosys misses and cuts growth outlook → JPMorgan/HSBC downgrade → signals softening enterprise IT-services demand → negative read-through to large-cap peer Accenture · quality: ROE 24% · margin 11% · rev +6%
why: Infosys not in index; nearest tradeable peer is ACN. Softer IT-services demand is a modest, slower-repriced read-through.
CTSH US Cognizant short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor
Target
↓3%
Horizon
10d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Infosys misses fiscal Q1 and cuts FY revenue guidance → JPMorgan and HSBC downgrade on weaker growth outlook → signals soft enterprise IT-services / discretionary tech spend → Cognizant, a direct IT-services peer, re-rates lower · quality: ROE 15% · margin 10% · rev +6%
why: Infosys FY cut + dual downgrades is a read-through to IT-services demand; CTSH is the closest US peer and repriced slower.
BR US Broadridge Financial Solutions short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · AI-disruption overhang
Target
↓3%
Horizon
10d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: Broadridge fell on AI-disruption / tokenized-equities concerns → sentiment overhang persists · quality: ROE 42% · margin 15% · rev +8%
why: Explainer of a move already underway; thematic not fresh catalyst, low conviction.
PSK.TO TSX PRAIRIESKY ROYALTY LTD watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 results beat / valuation focus
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 1 left
Since entry
-5.6%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 35.03 TARGET 36.43 (+4%) STOP 33.28 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Strong Q2 results draw investor focus to PrairieSky royalty cash flow · quality: ROE 9% · margin 48% · rev +50%
why: Direct royalty-name earnings focus; likely mostly priced since results already public, modest drift possible.
AES US AES Corporation short · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · acquisition legal complaint ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
15d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Advocacy groups file federal complaint against BlackRock acquisition of AES → Regulatory/legal overhang raises close risk on the buyout; target trades below deal price · quality: ROE 5% · margin 11% · rev +9%
why: Federal complaint adds close-risk overhang to BlackRock/AES deal; low conviction (advocacy filing, not regulator ruling).
LSPD.TO TSX LIGHTSPEED COMMERCE INC watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · Meta retail-data integration ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 7 left
Since entry
+4.1%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 13.97 TARGET 14.53 (+4%) STOP 13.27 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Lightspeed links retail data with Meta → new ad/commerce channel, cheap-valuation narrative → small-cap, sentiment-sensitive · quality: ROE -9% · margin -12% · rev +15%
why: Modest product/partnership item on a beaten-down small cap; more narrative than hard catalyst, low conviction.
VZLA.TO TSX VIZSLA SILVER CORP short · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · wider annual losses ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
14d · 7 left
Since entry
+8.1%
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: Vizsla reports wider annual losses; article questions full valuation · quality: ROE -11% · margin 0%
why: Widening losses plus a fully-priced framing is mildly negative, but a pre-revenue silver developer trades mostly on silver price — low conviction.
KKR US KKR & Co. watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · $16B infrastructure deal ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
15d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 99.36 TARGET 101.35 (+2%) STOP 94.39 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: KKR (w/ Blackstone, Brookfield) signs $16B Kuwait crude-pipeline lease/leaseback → long-dated fee-earning AUM · quality: ROE 8% · margin 12% · rev -7%
why: Large infrastructure lease adds long-dated fee-generating assets; positive but modest and spread across three managers.
BAM.TO TSX BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° capital-flow ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
15d · 8 left
Since entry
+12.9%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 65.33 TARGET 66.64 (+2%) STOP 62.06 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: Kuwait pipeline lease/leaseback names Brookfield as partner → fee-earning infra AUM for Brookfield asset manager · quality: ROE 22% · margin 50% · rev +24%
why: Brookfield is a named party; incremental infra mandate supports the Canadian asset manager, though modest relative to total AUM.
DE US Deere & Company watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · FTC antitrust settlement ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 628.16 TARGET 647.00 (+3%) STOP 596.75 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Deere agrees to 10-year right-to-repair deal, settling FTC antitrust lawsuit — removes a regulatory/litigation overhang · quality: ROE 18% · margin 10% · rev -11%
why: Settlement lifts FTC overhang (mild positive); offset by opening parts/service to third-party repair. Net modest, largely priced.
VITL-UN.TO TSX VITAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROPERTY T watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · accretive acquisition (Brooklyn Health Hub, long ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
15d · 8 left
Since entry
-4.8%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 5.81 TARGET 5.98 (+3%) STOP 5.52 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Vital Infra Property Trust acquires Brooklyn Health Hub for long-duration lease growth → modestly accretive to FFO, small positive · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Direct M&A on a name in the TSX universe; long-lease acquisition is FFO-accretive but VITL is tiny and illiquid — small, low-conviction move.
GIB-A.TO TSX CGI INC short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
14d · 7 left
Since entry
+8.8%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Quebec scraps AI & automation projects in public sector → CGI is a Quebec-based IT services firm heavily exposed to provincial government contracts → Fewer/cancelled projects trim near-term services revenue and sentiment · quality: ROE 17% · margin 10% · rev +3%
why: Quebec public-sector project cancellations are a modest revenue/sentiment headwind for CGI, a Quebec IT-services incumbent; nth-order, low conviction.
A US Agilent Technologies watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · FDA companion-diagnostic approval ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 138.57 TARGET 144.11 (+4%) STOP 131.64 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Agilent won FDA approval for PD-L1 IHC 28-8 pharmDx as OPDIVO companion diagnostic → incremental Dx revenue/optics · quality: ROE 21% · margin 20% · rev +10%
why: Real approval but already +5.4%; financial impact modest for a company Agilent's size. Mostly priced.
LVS US Las Vegas Sands short · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · softer Q2 earnings ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
14d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: Las Vegas Sands reported softer Q2 earnings alongside a larger buyback · quality: ROE 123% · margin 13% · rev -1%
why: Soft print vs a bigger buyback is a genuine two-sided catalyst; direction leans down on the earnings miss, low conviction.
BMO.TO TSX BANK OF MONTREAL short · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° capital-flow ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
21d · 18 left
Since entry
+1.0%
Model: priced-in
35%
Chain: Fed faces growing pressure to hike as price risks rebound → Hawkish repricing lifts North American front-end yields and the USD → Canadian bank funding costs and credit-loss expectations rise while mortgage/loan demand slows into a higher-rate path · quality: ROE 11% · margin 28% · rev +16%
why: Rate-path chain into Canadian bank credit and funding. Directionally ambiguous (NIM can help) — hence low conviction.
CPX.TO TSX CAPITAL POWER CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° input-demand ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
25d · 22 left
Since entry
-8.4%
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 71.74 TARGET 74.61 (+4%) STOP 68.15 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: 100F heat plus US data-center boom stresses aging grids → Scarcity value of dispatchable generation and capacity payments rises → Capital Power's US/Alberta thermal fleet earns higher spark spreads · quality: ROE 1% · margin 1% · rev +23%
why: Peak-load scarcity plus data-center demand is the standing bull case for dispatchable IPPs; Capital Power is the direct TSX expression.
ABT US Abbott Laboratories short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · guidance concerns + litigation overhang ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
20d · 18 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: Abbott fell as guidance and litigation concerns overshadowed growth — overhang keeps pressure on the multiple near term · quality: margin 12% · rev +13%
why: Commentary piece, not fresh news; litigation/guidance overhang is largely known. Low conviction, mostly priced.
TCL-A.TO TSX TRANSCONTINENTAL INC., CL A SV short · log-only ◆ OK 2° supply-cost
Target
↓6%
Horizon
21d · 19 left
Since entry
-0.6%
Model: priced-in
35%
Chain: 50% US tariffs hit Canadian pulp and paper → Transcontinental is a Canadian printing/packaging group whose cross-border paper and packaging flows get taxed → Cost and demand headwind to its US-facing business · quality: ROE 14% · margin 12% · rev -5%
why: Canadian printing/packaging with cross-border paper flows; tariff on paper products raises input/trade friction.
X.TO TSX TMX GROUP LIMITED short · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° demand-shock
Target
↓3%
Horizon
14d · 8 left
Since entry
+3.1%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Exchange peers CME, Nasdaq and MSCI report Q2 with results tied to volatility-driven trading volumes → Read-across sets the bar for transaction-revenue exchange models → TMX Group, the Canadian exchange comp, gets marked to the same volume/volatility cycle · quality: ROE 12% · margin 30% · rev +16%
why: Exchange-peer prints are the standard read-across for TMX; direction is uncertain given 'differing results' — low conviction, volume-cycle linkage only.
MNST US Monster Beverage watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · 2-for-1 stock split Aug 11
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
75%
BUY 95.25 TARGET 98.11 (+3%) STOP 90.49 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Monster Beverage executes a 2-for-1 split on Aug 11, drawing retail flow into the ex-date · quality: ROE 27% · margin 23% · rev +27%
why: Split is already announced and largely priced; only the pre-ex-date retail drift is left. Low-conviction, mechanical.
CVX US Chevron Corporation short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↓4%
Horizon
10d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: US and Iran pause fighting → Middle East war-risk premium in crude deflates → Integrated oil majors' upstream earnings track the spot crude repricing lower · quality: ROE 7% · margin 6% · rev +2%
why: De-escalation removes geopolitical bid in crude. Headline is a news roundup, so specifics are unverified — low conviction.
NRG US NRG Energy watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° geo-policy ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
15d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 136.50 TARGET 140.59 (+3%) STOP 129.67 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: PJM proposes emergency auction to secure generation against data-center-driven shortages → Auction lifts expected forward capacity clearing revenue in PJM → NRG's PJM generation and retail hedge book re-rates on higher capacity revenue · quality: ROE 6% · margin 1% · rev +20%
why: Second-tier PJM merchant beneficiary; smaller PJM exposure than VST/CEG so smaller expected move.
ATRL.TO TSX ATKINSREALIS GROUP INC watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · nuclear-cycle narrative ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
20d · 18 left
Since entry
-0.3%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 89.46 TARGET 93.04 (+4%) STOP 84.99 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: AtkinsRealis framed as a beneficiary of the nuclear revival — CANDU refurbishment/newbuild pipeline supports the engineering backlog story · quality: ROE 57% · margin 23% · rev +18%
why: Kalkine is commentary, not a primary catalyst — no new contract or number disclosed. Momentum/narrative only, mostly priced.
NPI.TO TSX NORTHLAND POWER INC. watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · offshore wind project milestone ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 8 left
Since entry
-2.5%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 21.63 TARGET 22.50 (+4%) STOP 20.55 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Northland Power reports an offshore wind milestone — de-risks its largest capex program, the main overhang on the equity · quality: ROE -1% · margin -6% · rev +16%
why: Real catalyst type for NPI (execution risk on offshore wind), but Kalkine is a low-quality aggregator — discount heavily.
NXE.TO TSX NEXGEN ENERGY LTD watch · log-only ◆ OK 4° input-demand ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑6%
Horizon
15d · 12 left
Since entry
+7.3%
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 13.11 TARGET 13.90 (+6%) STOP 12.45 (-5%) ✓ clears · +5.5% net · R:R 1.0
Chain: Nvidia-backed 10GW Ohio hub signals another step-change in US electricity demand → Baseload gap drives nuclear restart/new-build commitments by hyperscalers → Long-term uranium contracting expectations rise → NexGen, a pre-production Canadian uranium developer, trades as high-beta on uranium sentiment · quality: ROE -30% · margin 0%
why: Higher-beta uranium proxy to the same AI-power chain as CCO; no cash flow, pure sentiment, hence lower conviction.
HRL US Hormel Foods watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · permanent CEO named ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 26.05 TARGET 26.83 (+3%) STOP 24.75 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Internal president John Ghingo named permanent CEO, ending the interim period → leadership uncertainty discount narrows · quality: ROE 6% · margin 4% · rev -3%
why: Internal, orderly succession — resolves overhang but signals continuity, not a strategy reset; modest and easily faded.
TIH.TO TSX TOROMONT IND watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
21d · 20 left
Since entry
+7.6%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 210.63 TARGET 216.95 (+3%) STOP 200.10 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Carrier reports AI-driven earnings boost, confirming datacenter buildout capex is accelerating → Datacenter construction pulls demand for heavy equipment, power gen and material handling in Canada → Toromont, the Cat dealer for Ontario/Quebec/Manitoba, sees equipment and rental demand follow the construction cycle · quality: ROE 16% · margin 10% · rev +13%
why: Weak-to-moderate link: Toromont's exposure is broad construction/mining, not specifically datacenters. Small magnitude, low conviction — a lean, not a signal.
AMZN US Amazon short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · AI strategy retreat ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Amazon winds down most of its flagship in-house AI models, a public admission its frontier-model effort failed to compete · quality: ROE 24% · margin 12% · rev +17%
why: Narrative negative for AI-leadership perception, but cost-saving and AWS-neutral — mega-cap, so the move is likely small and fast.
NTR.TO TSX NUTRIEN LTD short · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° competitor ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
20d · 19 left
Since entry
-1.5%
Model: priced-in
20%
Chain: US federal money backs a green-ammonia consortium in Western Sahara/Morocco → Morocco is already the dominant low-cost phosphate/fertilizer exporter; state-backed green ammonia adds subsidized nitrogen supply → New subsidized capacity pressures long-run nitrogen pricing, where Nutrien is a top-tier producer · quality: ROE 10% · margin 9% · rev +19%
why: Long-dated supply signal, not near-term volume; small magnitude and speculative — first funds only, no capacity yet.
DG US Dollar General watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° demand-shock ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
21d · 20 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
70%
BUY 123.22 TARGET 128.15 (+4%) STOP 117.06 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Rising US grocery bills reshape shopping habits → Households trade down to discount/value formats and smaller basket sizes → Deep-discount grocery-exposed retailers gain traffic share · quality: ROE 19% · margin 4% · rev +3%
why: Chronic, well-covered theme so mostly priced; only a fresh acceleration in food CPI moves it. Low conviction, thematic not event-driven.
INTU US Intuit short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · analyst downgrade
Target
↓4%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: Intuit downgraded in Wall Street's top analyst calls · quality: ROE 22% · margin 22% · rev +10%
why: Single downgrade with no detail in headline; low conviction, downgrades on large caps fade fast.
PCAR US Paccar watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · earnings beat
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 134.51 TARGET 139.89 (+4%) STOP 127.78 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Paccar topped Q2 earnings estimates · quality: ROE 13% · margin 9% · rev -9%
why: Standard beat headline with no guidance detail; classic post-earnings-announcement drift, small magnitude.
EOG US EOG Resources watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings next week
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 140.83 TARGET 146.46 (+4%) STOP 133.79 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: EOG Q2 print expected to show earnings growth; capital-return/guidance the mover · quality: ROE 18% · margin 23% · rev +16%
why: Real scheduled catalyst, but a week out and preview-sourced — low conviction, modest expected move.
COST US Costco watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · private-label margin/loyalty narrative
Target
↑2%
Horizon
20d · 19 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
70%
BUY 974.59 TARGET 994.09 (+2%) STOP 925.87 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Kirkland Signature expansion with 15-20% consumer savings deepens member loyalty and private-label mix, supporting renewal rates and gross margin · quality: ROE 29% · margin 3% · rev +22%
why: Commentary piece, not a hard catalyst — weak conviction; Kirkland strength is a well-known part of the COST bull case.
MS US Morgan Stanley watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° capital-flow
Target
↑3%
Horizon
21d · 20 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 212.46 TARGET 218.84 (+3%) STOP 201.84 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Morgan Stanley launches ether and solana ETPs after a successful bitcoin fund → New products pull fee-generating AUM into its asset-management arm → Incremental, high-margin recurring revenue plus first-mover distribution advantage · quality: margin 26% · rev +28%
why: Real but small relative to MS earnings; crypto ETP fees are a rounding error near-term — sentiment more than numbers.
QBR-B.TO TSX QUEBECOR INC CLASS B SV short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor
Target
↓3%
Horizon
21d · 20 left
Since entry
-3.8%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: Rogers sublicenses Wednesday NHL games to Prime Video for 12 years → Premium hockey inventory is locked away from rival Canadian carriers/broadcasters for over a decade → Quebecor's TVA Sports and Videotron lose optionality on Canada's top sports bundling asset · quality: ROE 35% · margin 16% · rev +4%
why: Second-order competitive read: a 12-yr exclusive removes a bundling lever for Canadian telco rivals. Speculative — no direct financial disclosure.
TER US Teradyne short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand
Target
↓6%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: Amkor beats but stock falls 23%, implying a weak packaging/test outlook → Back-end assembly and test capex expectations get cut → Teradyne's SoC test demand is levered to that same back-end capex · quality: ROE 29% · margin 23% · rev +87%
why: A 23% drop on a beat = guidance, not the quarter. Back-end weakness reads straight through to test equipment orders.
UDR US UDR, Inc. watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · FFO beat + raised 2026 outlook
Target
↑4%
Horizon
15d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 39.04 TARGET 40.60 (+4%) STOP 37.09 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: UDR beat Q2 FFO on leasing strength and raised its 2026 FFO outlook · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Residential REIT beat-and-raise with strong occupancy/retention; REIT reactions are muted and rate-driven, so modest move expected.
FFH.TO TSX FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · M&A deal clears proxy-advisor hurdle
Target
↑2%
Horizon
21d · 20 left
Since entry
-1.7%
Model: priced-in
75%
BUY 2453.00 TARGET 2502.06 (+2%) STOP 2330.35 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: ISS recommends Andrew Peller shareholders vote FOR the arrangement with Fairfax, raising deal-close probability for acquirer FFH · quality: ROE 17% · margin 12% · rev -8%
why: ISS backing de-risks the Peller acquisition. Acquirer-side impact is small — Fairfax is huge relative to a small wine deal — so low conviction, mostly priced.
PNR US Pentair watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · M&A + 2027 growth guidance
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 66.64 TARGET 69.30 (+4%) STOP 63.30 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Pentair announces $1.4B Taco acquisition and frames it as driving 'robust' 2027 growth — bolt-on to its water/flow platform with an explicit forward growth claim · quality: ROE 18% · margin 16% · rev +3%
why: Sized deal with management growth framing. Acquirer moves are usually muted, hence small magnitude and modest conviction.
BKR US Baker Hughes watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · CEO growth commentary (energy security + AI powe
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 58.51 TARGET 60.26 (+3%) STOP 55.58 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Baker Hughes CEO frames energy security and AI-driven power demand as fueling growth, supporting orders/backlog narrative for gas tech · quality: ROE 16% · margin 11% · rev -2%
why: Management commentary, not a hard number — directional support for the gas-tech/AI-power bid, modest and partly priced.
CSH-UN.TO TSX CHARTWELL RETIREMENT RESIDENCES watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° demand-shock ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
-4.8%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 23.20 TARGET 23.90 (+3%) STOP 22.04 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Welltower Q2 shows revenue and income growth driven by senior housing investments → Confirms occupancy/rate recovery is still running across North American senior housing → Canadian pure-play senior-housing operator Chartwell reprices on the same demand read-through · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Welltower is the sector bellwether; its senior-housing strength historically leads Canadian operators, which the market reprices with a lag.
SBAC US SBA Communications watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° competitor ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 174.93 TARGET 180.18 (+3%) STOP 166.18 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: American Tower raises outlook on tower/data-center strength → Signals healthier carrier leasing and FX backdrop for the tower group → SBA Communications, the closest pure-play tower peer, gets a positive read-across ahead of its own print · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Tower peers reprice together on carrier-leasing datapoints; SBAC lacks the data-center segment so read-across is partial.
SIA.TO TSX SIENNA SENIOR LIVING INC watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · capacity expansion ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
20d · 19 left
Since entry
-2.4%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 23.31 TARGET 24.24 (+4%) STOP 22.14 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Sienna expands GTA long-term-care footprint; added beds lift occupancy-driven NOI expectations for a small-cap healthcare REIT-like name · quality: ROE 6% · margin 4% · rev +18%
why: Real capacity catalyst but sourced from a syndicated commentary piece, not a filing — low conviction, slow-repricing small cap.
BLK US BlackRock watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · $14B infrastructure JV deployment ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 11 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 1097.55 TARGET 1130.48 (+3%) STOP 1042.67 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: BlackRock commits alongside Meta to a $14B El Paso data center venture — large fee-earning infrastructure AUM deployment validating its private-markets/AIP franchise · quality: margin 24% · rev +31%
why: Anchor mega-deal for BlackRock's infrastructure arm; deployment of committed capital converts dry powder into recurring fee income.
ATS.TO TSX ATS CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° substitution ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
21d · 20 left
Since entry
+3.3%
Model: priced-in
15%
BUY 38.06 TARGET 39.58 (+4%) STOP 36.16 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: FCC bans China-made humanoid robots citing unacceptable risks → US buyers of automation/robotics must source non-Chinese systems → Demand shifts toward Western automation integrators — ATS builds turnkey automation for NA industrial customers · quality: ROE 4% · margin 2% · rev +30%
why: Plausible substitution chain, but humanoids are not ATS's product line — the read-through is sentiment-level, not order-book-level.
TD.TO TSX TORONTO-DOMINION BANK short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
-0.2%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Citadel Securities floats a Fed rate-HIKE call into the FOMC decision, pushing the front end and rate vol higher → A hawkish repricing lifts North American funding costs and steepens recession/credit risk → Canadian banks with large US retail books — TD most of all — de-rate on the credit-cost and NIM-path read · quality: ROE 12% · margin 25% · rev -32%
why: Out-of-consensus hike call ahead of FOMC; TD carries the largest US-retail credit exposure among the TSX banks.
RY.TO TSX ROYAL BANK OF CANADA short · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° capital-flow ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
15d · 13 left
Since entry
-1.2%
Model: priced-in
35%
Chain: Citadel Securities calls for a Fed rate HIKE, against consensus easing → Front-end yields and terminal-rate expectations reprice higher; equity risk premium compresses → Rate-sensitive Canadian bank multiples de-rate on credit-cost and mortgage-renewal risk despite NIM benefit · quality: ROE 16% · margin 34% · rev +16%
why: A hike call from a major flow house is a genuine repricing risk for levered Canadian housing/credit exposure. Sell-side opinion, not data — low conviction.
FTT.TO TSX FINNING INTL short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
7d · 1 left
Since entry
+2.2%
Model: priced-in
25%
Chain: Toromont (Cat dealer, Ontario/Quebec) posts flat profit on 16% revenue growth → Signals cost/mix pressure across the Canadian Caterpillar dealer channel → Finning, the other listed Cat dealer, gets marked down on the same margin read · quality: ROE 19% · margin 6% · rev +2%
why: Same business model and equipment supplier; sell-side routinely trims the peer after a dealer margin miss. Weaker link than the direct name.
SES.TO TSX SECURE WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE COR watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° capital-flow ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
21d · 21 left
Since entry
+3.5%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 23.27 TARGET 23.97 (+3%) STOP 22.11 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: GFL note flags the SECURE acquisition as an FCF driver → SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES.TO) is the counterparty being consolidated into GFL → A bullish read on the deal's value supports SES pricing/deal-completion expectations · quality: ROE 14% · margin 8% · rev +1%
why: Nth-order off the same note: SES is the named acquisition. Weak — deal terms likely already reflected in SES.
LULU US Lululemon Athletica short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
21d · 21 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
Chain: Nike China sales -30% on domestic 'China Chic' preference shift → Same consumer nationalism headwind applies to other Western athleisure brands leaning on China as their growth engine → Lululemon's China growth narrative gets re-rated lower · quality: ROE 32% · margin 13% · rev +4%
why: Read-across, not a LULU-specific datapoint; the mechanism (local-brand preference) is category-wide but magnitude for LULU is unproven.
EQX.TO TSX EQUINOX GOLD CORP short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
+12.5%
Model: priced-in
15%
Chain: Zijin's full acquisition of a Canadian gold miner is scrapped in favour of a ~$295M minority stake → Market marks down the probability that Chinese buyers can complete outright takeovers of Canadian miners → Mid-tier TSX gold names carrying an implicit Chinese-bid option, such as Equinox, lose part of that premium · quality: ROE 5% · margin 25% · rev +224%
why: Speculative chain: structure change from control to minority stake implies foreign-ownership friction; only a small premium sits in mid-tier peers.
KDP US Keurig Dr Pepper watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · Earnings beat on strong beverage sales
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
70%
BUY 31.10 TARGET 32.03 (+3%) STOP 29.55 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Keurig Dr Pepper pops on strong beverage segment sales in its quarterly print · quality: ROE 6% · margin 11% · rev +9%
why: Staples beat with volume-led growth; low-beta name so residual move after the pop is small.
SJ.TO TSX STELLA JONES INC watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° demand-shock
Target
↑4%
Horizon
20d · 20 left
Since entry
+0.8%
Model: priced-in
25%
BUY 78.55 TARGET 81.69 (+4%) STOP 74.62 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Masco raises FY26 outlook, implying US repair/remodel demand is firmer than feared → Stronger R&R activity lifts demand for treated wood and building products sold into US home-centre channels → Stella-Jones, a Canadian producer levered to US residential/utility wood demand, benefits · quality: ROE 15% · margin 9% · rev +2%
why: R&R demand read-across to a Canadian wood-products name. Third-order and slow; SJ's mix is utility-pole heavy, which dilutes the link.
GEV US GE Vernova watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 907.53 TARGET 943.84 (+4%) STOP 862.16 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Meta/BlackRock commit $14B to a 1-gigawatt El Paso AI data center campus → A 1GW campus needs turbines, grid interconnect and electrical balance-of-plant → GE Vernova is a primary beneficiary of incremental gigawatt-scale power orders · quality: ROE 83% · margin 23% · rev +22%
why: Confirmed-funded 1GW load is a real order-pipeline datapoint for power equipment; the AI-power theme is already well owned.
HIG US Hartford (The) watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · analyst upgrade / 52-week high
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 145.15 TARGET 150.95 (+4%) STOP 137.89 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Hartford upgraded, breaks to a new 12-month high · quality: ROE 22% · margin 15% · rev +8%
why: Upgrade-plus-breakout has mild continuation drift, but single-broker upgrades in large-cap P&C are weak standalone catalysts.
LUV US Southwest Airlines watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · earnings rebound / bull case
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 45.14 TARGET 46.95 (+4%) STOP 42.88 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Southwest's earnings rebound, stronger unit revenue and $5.3bn liquidity framed as supporting upside, with fuel/Boeing/valuation as offsets · quality: ROE 11% · margin 3% · rev +16%
why: Retrospective commentary on an already-reported quarter, not fresh news. Weak, mostly-priced. Low conviction.
ORCL US Oracle Corporation short · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° capital-flow
Target
↓4%
Horizon
21d · 21 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Ellison personally guarantees $40.4B of Paramount Skydance equity financing for the WBD deal → A separate headline shows exhibitors pushing litigation to delay that merger, extending Ellison's exposure → Ellison owns 40.6% of Oracle — perceived collateral/forced-sale risk becomes an Oracle-shareholder overhang · quality: ROE 53% · margin 25% · rev +21%
why: Indirect and sentiment-driven; the linkage is well-articulated in the batch but Oracle's own AI-capex story dominates the stock most days.
EIX US Edison International watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings event
Target
↑5%
Horizon
7d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 78.73 TARGET 82.67 (+5%) STOP 74.79 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: Edison International reports Q2 with grid investment, rate-case support, rising demand and tighter costs cited as drivers — binary event risk into the print · quality: ROE 19% · margin 18% · rev +8%
why: Scheduled earnings, direction genuinely uncertain for a wildfire-liability utility; low conviction on sign, real event.
PMZ-UN.TO TSX PRIMARIS REIT SERIES A watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · Q2 results + guidance reaffirmed ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
-2.2%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 23.08 TARGET 23.77 (+3%) STOP 21.93 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Primaris reports Q2 2026 and reaffirms full-year guidance → removes cut risk for a rate-sensitive enclosed-mall REIT; modest relief bid · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Reaffirmed guidance is a de-risking event, not an upgrade — low magnitude, low conviction. REIT moves are mostly rate-driven, so headline alpha is limited.
AWK US American Water Works watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · in-line results, guidance affirmed ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
7d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
65%
BUY 138.09 TARGET 140.85 (+2%) STOP 131.19 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Solid Q2 with 2026 EPS guidance and long-term targets affirmed removes the tail risk of a regulated-utility guidance cut · quality: ROE 10% · margin 21% · rev +6%
why: Affirm-not-raise on a defensive utility: small, low-conviction drift at best. Mostly priced.
AON US Aon plc watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
7d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 377.16 TARGET 388.47 (+3%) STOP 358.30 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Aon beats Q2 EPS on organic growth, margin expansion and client retention despite a slight revenue miss · quality: ROE 46% · margin 23% · rev +6%
why: Margin + retention beat quality is good, but the revenue miss caps upside and brokers rarely gap far on in-line organic.
REI-UN.TO TSX RIOCAN REAL EST UN short · log-only ◆ OK 3° capital-flow ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
21d · 21 left
Since entry
-2.7%
Model: priced-in
35%
Chain: Fed leaves rates unchanged with a hawkish tilt and Wall Street sells off hard → Higher-for-longer discount rates raise cap-rate assumptions on commercial property → Leveraged Canadian retail REITs face both NAV pressure and higher refinancing cost · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: REITs are the classic duration-proxy loser on a hawkish hold; RioCan carries leverage and near-term refi exposure.
NFI.TO TSX NFI GROUP INC watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° input-demand ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑6%
Horizon
21d · 22 left
Since entry
-0.8%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 25.32 TARGET 26.84 (+6%) STOP 24.05 (-5%) ✓ clears · +5.5% net · R:R 1.0
Chain: Knorr-Bremse posts higher Q2 profit AND rising ORDERS, lifts FY26 view → Knorr-Bremse supplies braking systems to commercial-vehicle and bus OEMs — its order book is a direct proxy for bus/truck build rates → NFI Group's transit-bus backlog and delivery cadence sit in the same demand pool · quality: ROE -19% · margin -3% · rev +0%
why: Supplier orders lead OEM deliveries. Weaker link than a direct NFI print — Knorr is Europe/rail-weighted, so treat as a sentiment tailwind not a hard read.
ALA.TO TSX ALTAGAS LTD. watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° demand-shock ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
25d · 28 left
Since entry
-4.8%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 55.64 TARGET 57.87 (+4%) STOP 52.86 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Headline confirms a new AltaGas REEF export deal with Tourmaline → Contracted volumes on REEF (AltaGas's West Coast export terminal) de-risk the project's utilisation and cash flows → AltaGas is the terminal owner and slower to reprice than the named producer · quality: ROE 5% · margin 4% · rev +0%
why: Deal is named in-headline; market focus is on the producer side. Terminal owner benefits from contracted volumes but the story is second-order here.
WCP.TO TSX WHITECAP RESOURCES INC watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
15d · 14 left
Since entry
-1.1%
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 16.02 TARGET 16.66 (+4%) STOP 15.22 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Whitecap Resources reported strong earnings; coverage frames the stock as potentially still undervalued after the print · quality: ROE 10% · margin 14% · rev +115%
why: Post-earnings drift on a named TSX producer. Third-party valuation commentary, not the release itself, so the initial move is likely already made.
SCR.TO TSX STRATHCONA RESOURCES LTD watch · log-only ◆ OK 3° geo-policy ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑9%
Horizon
25d · 28 left
Since entry
-7.7%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 41.97 TARGET 45.75 (+9%) STOP 39.87 (-5%) ✓ clears · +8.5% net · R:R 1.55
Chain: Iran war tightens Middle East sour/heavy supply → Japan buys Canadian crude, adding structural Asian demand for WCS → Narrower WCS differential lifts realized prices across Canadian heavy producers → Smaller, high-beta heavy-oil names like Strathcona reprice more than large caps · quality: ROE 5% · margin 20% · rev -8%
why: Same WCS-diff chain but higher beta and less analyst coverage than CVE/SU, so slower to reprice. Lower conviction: liquidity thinner.
XOM US ExxonMobil short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · BofA turns negative on Exxon relative to Chevron ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
15d · 14 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: BofA reverses its preference away from Exxon, removing a bull sponsor and prompting relative-value selling · quality: ROE 10% · margin 8% · rev +3%
why: Other side of the same BofA pair call. Mega-cap, sell-side-only catalyst — small magnitude, low conviction.
KXS.TO TSX KINAXIS INC watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
14d · 13 left
Since entry
-1.3%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 170.67 TARGET 175.79 (+3%) STOP 162.14 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: PTC beats and raises on net new ARR from discrete-manufacturing customers → Implies enterprise industrial-software budgets are not cracking → Kinaxis sells supply-chain planning software into the same manufacturing buyers and gets a sentiment read-across ahead of its own print · quality: ROE 21% · margin 14% · rev +25%
why: Read-across only — shared manufacturing end-buyer, no Kinaxis-specific news. Low conviction, small magnitude; PTC ARR strength is partly its own go-to-market change.
TT US Trane Technologies watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 446.80 TARGET 460.20 (+3%) STOP 424.46 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Trane Technologies reports increased Q2 income · quality: ROE 37% · margin 13% · rev +6%
why: HVAC/data-centre cooling demand proxy printing higher income; a quality compounder where beats extend trend, but no guidance detail so conviction is low.
XEL US Xcel Energy watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · earnings beat ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 78.75 TARGET 80.33 (+2%) STOP 74.81 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Xcel Energy reports Q2 profit climbing year-over-year · quality: ROE 10% · margin 14% · rev +3%
why: Regulated utility beat — small, low-beta move. Utilities rarely gap on in-line-ish results; included at minimum magnitude only.
ALB US Albemarle Corporation watch · log-only ◆ OK 3° input-demand ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 113.88 TARGET 119.57 (+5%) STOP 108.19 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: Lucid soars 21.5% per batch headline → Sentiment/flows rotate into the EV battery-supply complex → Lithium producers are the upstream input beneficiary → ALB bid on renewed EV demand read-through · quality: ROE -2% · margin -4% · rev +33%
why: Sentiment chain only — the batch gives no reason for Lucid's move, so the lithium read-through is weak. Low conviction.
GDDY US GoDaddy short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · AI disruption / margin concerns ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓5%
Horizon
21d · 22 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
65%
Chain: GoDaddy fell on AI-disruption narrative and margin concerns — direct de-rating driver · quality: ROE 398% · margin 17% · rev +6%
why: Retrospective fund-letter style piece; narrative-driven, no new catalyst. Momentum-continuation short at best, low conviction.
EME US Emcor watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · guidance raise
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
85%
BUY 776.47 TARGET 799.76 (+3%) STOP 737.65 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: EMCOR raises FY26 earnings and revenue guidance on Q2 results; stock already +13.8% · quality: ROE 39% · margin 8% · rev +20%
why: Real catalyst but the 13.8% pop has consumed most of it; only post-earnings-drift upside remains, so conviction is low.
BDT.TO TSX BIRD CONSTRUCTION INC. watch · log-only ◆ OK 2° input-demand
Target
↑4%
Horizon
20d · 21 left
Since entry
+8.2%
Model: priced-in
25%
BUY 64.75 TARGET 67.34 (+4%) STOP 61.51 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: EMCOR raises FY26 guidance on strong mechanical/electrical construction demand → Confirms the North American data-centre and industrial build cycle is still accelerating → Canadian E&C contractors with similar end-markets see backlog read-through · quality: ROE 11% · margin 1% · rev +9%
why: Sector read-through, not company news — Canadian contractors trade off US construction datapoints with a lag. Speculative.
CSU.TO TSX CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INC. short · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° capital-flow
Target
↓5%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
+7.5%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: Mega-cap AI/tech earnings punished; 'sentiment has turned vicious' on previously red-hot names → Multiple compression spreads from US tech leaders to global high-multiple compounders → TSX's highest-multiple tech name de-rates with the group · quality: ROE 20% · margin 6% · rev +20%
why: Sentiment-driven multiple compression chain, not a company event. Weak conviction — pundit commentary, not data.
BIR.TO TSX BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY LTD. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 3° demand-shock
Target
↑6%
Horizon
15d · 14 left
Since entry
-0.9%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 6.22 TARGET 6.59 (+6%) STOP 5.90 (-5%) ✓ clears · +5.5% net · R:R 1.0
Chain: Ksi Lisims LNG signs 20-year supply deal with Uniper → Project economics firm up, raising expected BC gas takeaway → AECO strip lifts on future export pull → Small-cap Montney pure-play Birchcliff has the highest torque to AECO · quality: ROE 3% · margin 10% · rev +11%
why: Highest-beta AECO name to the same egress chain; third-order so conviction is low and the move may not materialize at all.
MCHP US Microchip Technology watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · expected earnings beat
Target
↑6%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 75.72 TARGET 80.26 (+6%) STOP 71.93 (-5%) ✓ clears FX · +2.5% net · R:R 0.29
Chain: Microchip Technology heads into Q1 with positive estimate revisions flagged ahead of the release — an event-driven pre-earnings setup · quality: ROE 3% · margin 5% · rev +35%
why: Preview piece, not a result — low conviction. Direction only holds if the print lands; sized small and short-horizon.
AEE US Ameren watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · Q2 earnings beat, guidance reaffirmed ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
7d · 4 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 108.75 TARGET 110.92 (+2%) STOP 103.31 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Ameren posts Q2 EPS $1.13 vs $1.01 a year ago and reaffirms FY 2026 guidance of $5.25-$5.45 · quality: ROE 12% · margin 18% · rev +4%
why: 12% YoY EPS growth with guidance intact; regulated utility so the move is small and largely anticipated, but the direction is positive.
STE US Steris watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · dividend increase ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 231.21 TARGET 235.83 (+2%) STOP 219.65 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: STERIS raises its quarterly dividend to $0.69/share, signalling management confidence in FY cash generation · quality: ROE 11% · margin 13% · rev +7%
why: Routine annual-style raise — mild positive signal on cash flow confidence, but dividend hikes at large-cap medtech rarely move the stock much.
WEC US WEC Energy Group watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · earnings beat + capex plan ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
21d · 22 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 110.05 TARGET 113.35 (+3%) STOP 104.55 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: WEC Energy beats Q2 on rate base growth, revenue rises, and its $37.5B capital plan advances — rate-base growth is the direct driver of regulated utility EPS · quality: ROE 12% · margin 17% · rev +3%
why: Regulated utility beat; low-beta name so magnitude is small, but the capex plan supports the multi-year EPS algorithm.
EXC US Exelon watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · in-line earnings, revenue beat ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
14d · 13 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
70%
BUY 45.58 TARGET 46.49 (+2%) STOP 43.30 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Exelon Q2 adjusted EPS rises 10.3% in line with estimates while revenue climbs 10% and beats — higher utility rates flowing through · quality: ROE 10% · margin 11% · rev +8%
why: In-line EPS is not a catalyst on its own; the revenue beat and rate uplift give a mild positive drift. Low conviction by design.
FFIV US F5, Inc. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · AI demand converting to revenue ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 7 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
BUY 388.75 TARGET 404.30 (+4%) STOP 369.31 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: F5 rises as AI-driven demand shows up in reported revenue · quality: ROE 20% · margin 22% · rev +11%
why: Re-rating story rather than a fresh discrete catalyst; headline is descriptive of a move already underway, so conviction is low.
VICI US Vici Properties watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · earnings beat ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 13 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 26.31 TARGET 27.36 (+4%) STOP 24.99 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: VICI Properties posted a Q2 earnings beat with commentary that shares may be materially undervalued · quality: REIT — quality not screened (net-income metrics N/A, no FFO)
why: Beat is real but the 'undervalued' framing is third-party opinion, not a catalyst; REIT moves are rate-driven.
VRTX US Vertex Pharmaceuticals short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · $10B acquisition of Crinetics ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
10d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
70%
Chain: Vertex paid $10 billion for Crinetics — large cash/dilution outlay, acquirer typically trades down or flat near-term · quality: ROE 24% · margin 36% · rev +8%
why: Acquirer-side drift after a $10B deal; mostly priced on announcement day, so this is a residual not a fresh catalyst.
HWM US Howmet Aerospace watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° supply-shock ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
21d · 25 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
20%
BUY 277.28 TARGET 285.60 (+3%) STOP 263.42 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Melrose warns of a cost hit from a GKN Aerospace plant incident and pauses its buyback → GKN structures/engine-component output is disrupted, tightening an already constrained aero components supply chain → Rival aerospace forging/fastener suppliers gain pricing and share; Howmet is the main listed beneficiary · quality: ROE 34% · margin 20% · rev +19%
why: A competitor's plant outage in a supply-constrained aero components market is a genuine share/pricing tailwind, but size is uncertain.
BEP-UN.TO TSX BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE PARTNERS L watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 3° input-demand ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
25d · 29 left
Since entry
+0.5%
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 45.61 TARGET 47.89 (+5%) STOP 43.33 (-5%) ✓ clears · +4.5% net · R:R 0.82
Chain: Amazon flags record AI capex and 2026 cloud capacity shortfall → New datacenter capacity requires contracted firm/clean power under long-dated PPAs → Brookfield Renewable is a primary counterparty for hyperscaler PPAs → Contracted cash-flow visibility supports re-rating of the units · quality: ROE 2% · margin 0% · rev -4%
why: Datacenter-power chain is well-known but repriced slowly and rate-sensitively; lower conviction, longer horizon.
KLAC US KLA Corporation watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 14 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
45%
BUY 180.33 TARGET 187.54 (+4%) STOP 171.31 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Lam Research beats and guides on strong wafer-fab equipment demand → KLA sells process control into the same fab capex budgets → Sell-side raises WFE estimates across the group · quality: ROE 87% · margin 36% · rev +15%
why: Same fab capex pool as Lam; slower to reprice than the reporter itself.
BKNG US Booking Holdings short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° demand-shock ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
14d · 14 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
Chain: Amadeus cuts 2026 guidance citing Middle East conflict hitting air distribution → Amadeus GDS volumes are a read-through on global air booking volumes → Softer international air bookings pressure OTA transaction growth at Booking Holdings · quality: margin 22% · rev +16%
why: Amadeus is the cleanest public proxy for air booking volumes; a guidance cut on conflict-driven weakness is a genuine sector read-through.
TROW US T. Rowe Price watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings release ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
5d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 119.28 TARGET 124.05 (+4%) STOP 113.32 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: T. Rowe Price reports Q2 2026 results on 2026-07-31 · quality: ROE 19% · margin 28% · rev +5%
why: Headline confirms the print but contains no beat/miss or AUM/flow detail — the flow line is what moves asset managers. Direction unknown.
CHD US Church & Dwight watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Q2 earnings release ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
5d · 1 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
35%
BUY 97.68 TARGET 100.61 (+3%) STOP 92.80 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Church & Dwight files 8-K Item 2.02 with Q2 results on 2026-07-31 · quality: ROE 17% · margin 12% · rev +0%
why: Low-beta staple; results confirmed, no numbers in the stub. Small expected move and unverified direction.
LYB US LyondellBasell watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · Q2 profit increase ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
7d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 60.44 TARGET 62.86 (+4%) STOP 57.42 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: LyondellBasell reports higher Q2 profit — earnings inflection in a deeply out-of-favour commodity chemicals name · quality: ROE -6% · margin -3% · rev -6%
why: Chemicals sentiment is depressed; an up-quarter is a positioning surprise. Headline gives direction only, no magnitude, so conviction is capped.
ABNB US Airbnb short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · large insider sale by co-founder/director ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
14d · 14 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: Airbnb director Joseph Gebbia sold ~2.1M shares for ~$315.9M on Jul 27-28 — a large founder-level sale is a mild negative sentiment/supply signal into earnings season · quality: ROE 32% · margin 20% · rev +18%
why: Insider sales are weak signals (often 10b5-1), but $316M from a co-founder is large enough to weigh on sentiment. Low conviction.
CL US Colgate-Palmolive short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings miss ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓3%
Horizon
7d · 5 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: Colgate-Palmolive reports a Q2 bottom-line decline versus last year · quality: ROE 364% · margin 10% · rev +8%
why: Direct negative print on a mega-cap staple; post-earnings drift is real but small and the gap-move is mostly same-day.
HBM.TO TSX HUDBAY MINERALS INC. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · profit growth despite cost inflation ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 14 left
Since entry
+13.9%
Model: priced-in
55%
BUY 31.84 TARGET 33.11 (+4%) STOP 30.25 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Hudbay reported profit growth even as copper unit costs rise — margin resilience in a copper name is a re-rating trigger · quality: ROE 17% · margin 27% · rev +18%
why: Secondary commentary source, not a primary filing — weak conviction. Copper margin resilience is the tradeable angle if it reflects an actual recent print.
ARE.TO TSX AECON GROUP INC short · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · mixed quarter ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓6%
Horizon
10d · 8 left
Since entry
+7.2%
Model: priced-in
45%
Chain: Aecon reports a mixed quarter — backlog/portfolio expansion offset by weaker results, a typical setup for a small-cap Canadian contractor to de-rate short term · quality: ROE 4% · margin 1% · rev +18%
why: Direct earnings catalyst on a TSX universe name, but 'mixed' is ambiguous and the source is a low-tier aggregator — low conviction, direction uncertain.
L.TO TSX LOBLAW CO short · log-only ◆ OK 2° competitor
Target
↓2%
Horizon
20d · 1 left
Since entry
-0.0%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: Walmart cuts US food prices to win back price-sensitive shoppers → heightened grocery price competition narrative spreads across North America → Canadian grocers face margin/traffic pressure to match pricing · quality: ROE 24% · margin 4% · rev +4%
why: Walmart food-price cuts add competitive pressure on Canadian grocers' margins; slow-moving, low conviction
BBD-B.TO TSX BOMBARDIER INC., CL. B, SV short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° competitor ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
21d · 13 left
Since entry
+5.4%
Model: priced-in
20%
Chain: Abra Group agrees to buy up to 45 E195-E2 aircraft from Embraer → Embraer consolidates the 100-150 seat regional segment where Bombardier's former CSeries/CRJ franchise once competed and where its business-jet brand competes for the same Latin American fleet capital · quality: margin 10% · rev +5%
why: Weak link — Bombardier exited commercial aircraft, so the read-through is sentiment not revenue. Lowest conviction.
EFR.TO TSX ENERGY FUELS INC. watch · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · Valuation/rare-earth expansion note ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↑5%
Horizon
14d · 4 left
Since entry
+0.1%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 17.41 TARGET 18.28 (+5%) STOP 16.54 (-5%) ✓ clears · +4.5% net · R:R 0.82
Chain: Third-party research flags Energy Fuels as ~43% undervalued on rare-earth expansion plans · quality: ROE -11% · margin -83% · rev +112%
why: Opinion/valuation piece, not a catalyst — lowest conviction; included only as a weak sentiment tag on a universe name.
BIP-UN.TO TSX BROOKFIELD INFRA PARTNERS LP UN watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 3° input-demand ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
15d · 8 left
Since entry
-3.7%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 57.71 TARGET 59.44 (+3%) STOP 54.82 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: NAVER/NVIDIA/Brookfield scale Korea DSX AI factory to 200MW → Brookfield infrastructure arm gains AI data-center/power buildout pipeline · quality: ROE 7% · margin 1% · rev +17%
why: Brookfield named in AI-infra deal; entity/materiality uncertain vs group size, so very low conviction.
ATZ.TO TSX ARITZIA INC watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · positive screen / insider ownership feature ⏰ closed-mkt
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 1 left
Since entry
+7.6%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 134.50 TARGET 138.53 (+3%) STOP 127.77 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Aritzia named lead name in a fast-growing Canadian stocks with heavy insider ownership feature · quality: ROE 36% · margin 11% · rev +43%
why: Screen-based content piece, not a catalyst. Included at lowest conviction only; no fundamental news attached.
TXT US Textron watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° input-demand ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑1%
Horizon
14d · 8 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
20%
BUY 95.53 TARGET 96.49 (+1%) STOP 90.75 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-2.5% net
Chain: Bridger Aerospace wins $58M Texas A&M Forest Service contract → Contract covers acquisition and modification of three King Air 360 aircraft → King Air is a Textron Aviation product, so the order flows to Textron's backlog · quality: ROE 12% · margin 6% · rev +12%
why: Real supply link but three aircraft is immaterial to Textron revenue; included only as a low-conviction directional tag, not a tradeable size.
HWX.TO TSX HEADWATER EXPLORATION INC watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · operations update
Target
↑3%
Horizon
15d · 12 left
Since entry
-2.1%
Model: priced-in
30%
BUY 12.83 TARGET 13.21 (+3%) STOP 12.19 (-5%) ✓ clears · +2.5% net · R:R 0.45
Chain: Headwater Exploration reported as advancing its Canadian heavy-oil operations · quality: ROE 24% · margin 31% · rev +58%
why: Universe name with a TSX-specific headline, but Kalkine is low-grade content-mill coverage with no hard catalyst. Conviction 1.
GIL.TO TSX GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR INC. short · log-only ◆ OK DIRECT · securities class action investigation ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓2%
Horizon
10d · 5 left
Since entry
+11.6%
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: Rosen Law continues a securities-claims investigation into Gildan Activewear, keeping legal/governance overhang and headline risk on the name · quality: ROE 11% · margin 6% · rev +64%
why: Plaintiff-firm solicitations are low-information and usually follow an already-known drop; flagged only because it is a direct universe name.
RJF US Raymond James Financial watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · technical breakout / sell-side flag ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑4%
Horizon
15d · 13 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 177.18 TARGET 184.27 (+4%) STOP 168.32 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Raymond James flagged as a fresh technical breakout, which draws momentum flow into the name · quality: margin 15% · rev +15%
why: Pure technical/media call, no fundamental catalyst — low conviction momentum hint only.
EFX US Equifax watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · product/marketing survey ⏰ pre-mkt
Target
↑2%
Horizon
14d · 12 left
Since entry
n/a
Model: priced-in
20%
BUY 187.02 TARGET 190.76 (+2%) STOP 177.67 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: Equifax survey highlights employer demand for verified candidate data, its Workforce Solutions franchise · quality: ROE 14% · margin 11% · rev +11%
why: Company-issued marketing survey, not a catalyst. Included only as a weak signal; would not trade it standalone.
AAV.TO TSX ADVANTAGE ENERGY LTD short · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · capital-structure scrutiny piece ⏰ after-mkt
Target
↓4%
Horizon
10d · 6 left
Since entry
-1.2%
Model: priced-in
30%
Chain: Kalkine piece frames Advantage Energy as facing penny-stock capital scrutiny — negative framing on a small-cap gas producer · quality: ROE 7% · margin 18% · rev -4%
why: Kalkine is low-grade syndicated content, not a primary catalyst — flagged only because it names a universe ticker directly.

Hit-rate scoreboard

resolved only
By order-depth
302 / 970
66 / 184
8 / 24
0 / 1
By chain-type
capital-flow16 / 50
competitor18 / 48
demand-shock8 / 29
direct-catalyst295 / 943
geo-policy14 / 35
input-demand13 / 34
substitution1 / 3
supply-cost5 / 10
supply-shock6 / 27
"Hit" = direction right AND the predicted magnitude met within the horizon. Marks are net of an assumed 0.25%/side spread+slippage. Long-only (Wealthsimple $1k = no easy shorting); down-theses are logged & scored for calibration but not paper-traded. State written daily by news_sleeve.py after the close — this page only reads it. Research, not advice.