Ten‑A‑Day quant desk
MARKET CLOSED 09:35 ET
live news → direct + nth-order signals · US + Canada (736 names: 516 US / 220 TSX) · standalone paper book vs Hold-XIU · updated 2026-06-13 15:23 · research, signal-only.
Paper equity · since 2026-06-13 · 1 trading day
$998 -0.2%
behind Hold-XIU by $2 · XIU +0.0%
paper only
net 0.25%/side
News sleeve Hold-XIU
Open theses26
Resolved0
Hits0

Open theses

26 live
WBD US Warner Bros. Discovery PAPER LONG ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · M&A regulatory approval
Target
↑7%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
55%
Chain: DOJ reportedly approves $111B sale of Warner Bros to Paramount Skydance, removing antitrust overhang and confirming deal price · quality: ROE -5% · margin -5% · rev -1%
why: DOJ clearance is a hard regulatory catalyst; deal-close probability re-rates higher. Partly priced (already 'gains on report') so net up but discounted.
ARX.TO TSX ARC RESOURCES LTD. PAPER LONG ◆ HIGH DIRECT · M&A target — Shell deal
Target
↑18%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Shell pauses its $3B buyback citing an ARC Resources deal, signaling Shell is acquiring ARC (ARX.TO); target re-rates toward an acquisition premium · quality: ROE 17% · margin 23% · rev +20%
why: Shell pausing a $3B buyback explicitly 'due to ARC Resources deal' implies an acquisition of ARX.TO; targets jump toward deal premium. Premium partly leaked via the buyback pause.
CNQ.TO TSX CDN NATURAL RES PAPER LONG ◆ HIGH 2° supply-shock
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: US-Iran attacks intensify, ceasefire frays → crude risk premium stays elevated → Canadian oil-weighted producers' cash flow/realizations rise → CNQ reprices higher · quality: ROE 23% · margin 25% · rev -1%
why: Escalation sustains oil risk premium; CNQ is the most oil-leveraged large TSX producer, tracks crude closely.
SU.TO TSX SUNCOR ENERGY INC. PAPER LONG ◆ HIGH 2° supply-shock
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: US-Iran attacks intensify → crude risk premium persists → integrated Canadian producer margins improve → SU reprices higher · quality: ROE 14% · margin 12% · rev +18%
why: Suncor leverages sustained crude; war escalation supports upstream + downstream cracks.
AEM.TO TSX AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED PAPER LONG ◆ HIGH 2° capital-flow
Target
↑5%
Horizon
15d · 22 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: CPI hits 4.2%, highest in 3 years, amid Iran war → real-rate uncertainty + safe-haven demand lift gold → gold producers' margins expand → AEM reprices higher · quality: ROE 22% · margin 39% · rev +66%
why: Hot inflation + geopolitical risk is a classic gold tailwind; AEM is a high-quality, liquid TSX gold leveraged play.
MRVL US Marvell Technology PAPER LONG ◆ HIGH DIRECT · Nvidia partnership / CEO endorsement
Target
↑6%
Horizon
7d · 11 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: Jensen Huang publicly tags Marvell as next $1T company on the back of a new Nvidia-Marvell partnership → Heightens AI-custom-silicon TAM expectations for MRVL · quality: ROE 16% · margin 29% · rev +28%
why: High-profile endorsement + concrete partnership is a momentum catalyst for MRVL custom-silicon narrative; hype piece so partly priced and lower conviction.
CNQ.TO TSX CDN NATURAL RES short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↓5%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
55%
Chain: Iran nuclear deal very close, signing possible in coming days; UAE to unlock billions for Iran → Sanctions relief returns ~1-1.5 mbd Iranian crude to market and strips the geopolitical risk premium → Crude oil price falls → CNQ, a high-beta Canadian oil-weighted producer, repriced lower on weaker oil · quality: ROE 23% · margin 25% · rev -1%
why: Telegraphed since March (high priced-in), but actual signing in days is the catalyst; Iranian supply + lost risk premium pressures crude and Cdn producers.
SU.TO TSX SUNCOR ENERGY INC. short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↓4%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
55%
Chain: Iran deal near signing; UAE to unlock billions for Iran → Iranian crude returns and risk premium fades → Oil price softens → SU, integrated Cdn oil major, drifts lower with crude · quality: ROE 14% · margin 12% · rev +18%
why: Integrated so partly buffered by refining, but a real oil-down signal; deal heavily anticipated so much may already be in the price.
CVE.TO TSX CENOVUS ENERGY INC. short · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° geo-policy
Target
↓5%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
55%
Chain: Iran deal near; UAE to unlock billions for Iran → Iranian barrels return, geopolitical premium unwinds → Crude weakens → CVE, oil-weighted Cdn producer, falls with crude · quality: ROE 15% · margin 10% · rev -7%
why: Same crude-down chain; high-beta to oil. Risk: deal could slip again (Araqchi says no talks without interim deal first), capping downside.
CASY US Casey's watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat + dividend hike + $1B buyback
Target
↑5%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 895.14 TARGET 939.90 (+5%) STOP 850.38 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +1.5% net
Chain: Casey's reports earnings beat, raises dividend and expands buyback to $1B → positive re-rate · quality: ROE 19% · margin 4% · rev +14%
why: Earnings beat plus enlarged buyback and dividend hike is a clean direct positive catalyst; part already moved post-print.
KNT.TO TSX K92 MINING INC watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · positive drill results
Target
↑7%
Horizon
14d · 21 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
40%
BUY 22.65 TARGET 24.24 (+7%) STOP 21.52 (-5%) ✓ clears · +6.5% net · R:R 1.18
Chain: K92 reports new Arakompa drilling results → resource/grade optimism → re-rate · quality: ROE 44% · margin 46% · rev +63%
why: Fresh drill results are a known mover for junior/mid gold; ticker confirmed in TSX list.
BLX.TO TSX BORALEX INC. watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · acquisition approval
Target
↑4%
Horizon
14d · 21 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
70%
BUY 36.85 TARGET 38.32 (+4%) STOP 35.01 (-5%) ✓ clears · +3.5% net · R:R 0.64
Chain: Boralex acquisition approval confirmed (Brookfield); BLX shares converge toward takeout consideration · quality: ROE 0% · margin -4% · rev +21%
why: Deal approval reduces close risk; arb spread narrows toward consideration. Mostly priced once approval is public.
CVE.TO TSX CENOVUS ENERGY INC. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° supply-shock
Target
↑4%
Horizon
12d · 18 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: energy inflation persistent, oil still well above pre-war → elevated crude sustained → Cenovus oil-sands netbacks rise → CVE reprices higher · quality: ROE 15% · margin 10% · rev -7%
why: Fed confirms oil structurally higher; benefits oil-weighted Canadian integrateds.
TOU.TO TSX TOURMALINE OIL CORP watch · log-only ◆ OK 3° geo-policy
Target
↑5%
Horizon
15d · 22 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
45%
Chain: Iran war pushes euro-zone energy +10.9% → global gas/LNG demand tightens → North American gas pricing firms → Tourmaline (gas-weighted) reprices higher · quality: ROE 4% · margin 15% · rev +4%
why: Largest TSX gas producer; European gas stress supports LNG-linked North American gas sentiment.
ABX.TO TSX BARRICK MINING CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ HIGH 2° capital-flow
Target
↑5%
Horizon
15d · 22 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: CPI 4.2% + escalating Iran war → safe-haven and inflation-hedge flows into gold → senior gold miner earnings leverage rising bullion → ABX reprices higher · quality: ROE 25% · margin 32% · rev +67%
why: Same gold thesis; Barrick a large-cap senior with high beta to bullion moves.
JNJ US Johnson & Johnson watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · positive Phase trial data (TALVEY+DARZALEX)
Target
↑2%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
60%
Chain: JNJ reports strong PFS (up to 81%) / OS (up to 89%) at 24mo for TALVEY+DARZALEX bispecific combo in earlier-line relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma → strengthens myeloma franchise · quality: ROE 26% · margin 22% · rev +10%
why: J&J myeloma bispecifics; positive but incremental data for a mega-cap, likely largely priced. Surfaced as a real catalyst, low magnitude.
TSN US Tyson Foods watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° competitor
Target
↑2%
Horizon
15d · 22 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: JBS USA closes PA and TN facilities → US protein processing capacity tightens → remaining processors gain relative pricing/share → Tyson benefits · quality: ROE 3% · margin 1% · rev +4%
why: JBS (Tyson's largest US protein competitor) trimming capacity is marginally supportive for TSN, but could also signal soft demand. Weak, low conviction.
SMCI US Supermicro watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · material agreement + Reg FD disclosure
Target
↑5%
Horizon
5d · 8 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: SMCI files 8-K Item 1.01 (material definitive agreement) alongside Item 7.01 Reg FD — typically a new supply/financing/partnership deal management is choosing to publicize · quality: ROE 18% · margin 4% · rev +123%
why: Item 1.01 material agreement + voluntary Reg FD on a high-beta AI-server name; direction/size unknown without content, so modest size and high priced-in discount.
CTVA US Corteva watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · restructuring / exit charge
Target
↑3%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
50%
Chain: Corteva 8-K/A Item 2.05 books exit/disposal (restructuring) costs — market often reads cost-discipline modestly positive though charge dents near-term EPS · quality: ROE 5% · margin 6% · rev +11%
why: Item 2.05 exit/disposal = restructuring; direction ambiguous, lean slightly positive on cost discipline. Low magnitude, large-cap so mostly priced.
MDA.TO TSX MDA SPACE LTD watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE 2° capital-flow
Target
↑4%
Horizon
5d · 8 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
40%
Chain: SpaceX opens +20% in blockbuster Nasdaq debut → Re-rates listed space/satellite pure-plays on sentiment + comp multiples → MDA Space, the main TSX space name, gets a sympathy bid · quality: margin 2% · rev +0%
why: Hot SpaceX debut lifts space-sector sentiment/comps; MDA.TO is the TSX space pure-play likely to catch a sympathy bid. Thin causal link, sentiment-driven.
HWM US Howmet Aerospace watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat + guidance hike
Target
↑3%
Horizon
7d · 11 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
80%
BUY 264.67 TARGET 272.61 (+3%) STOP 251.44 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-0.5% net
Chain: Howmet posts Q1 beat and raises guidance; aerospace demand strength drives post-print drift · quality: ROE 34% · margin 20% · rev +19%
why: Beat-and-raise is a genuine catalyst but the 5.1% pop already prices most of it; only modest post-earnings drift left.
CNR.TO TSX CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · New BHP potash + propane volumes
Target
↑2%
Horizon
21d · 30 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 166.47 TARGET 169.80 (+2%) STOP 158.15 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: BHP potash and propane shipments add carload volume to CN's western resource corridor → incremental freight-volume tailwind for CNR · quality: ROE 22% · margin 27% · rev -0%
why: Analyst framing, not hard guidance; small directional volume positive for CN rail.
ADBE US Adobe Inc. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · earnings beat then post-print selloff + analyst
Target
↑4%
Horizon
10d · 15 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 204.02 TARGET 212.18 (+4%) STOP 193.82 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Adobe beats but sells off → upgrade flags oversold dislocation → mean-reversion bounce · quality: ROE 63% · margin 29% · rev +13%
why: Opinion-driven upgrade after a beat-and-selloff; directional but soft, low conviction.
EBAY US eBay Inc. watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · reported takeover interest from GameStop
Target
↑4%
Horizon
7d · 11 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
70%
BUY 108.61 TARGET 112.95 (+4%) STOP 103.18 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +0.5% net
Chain: Report that GME wants to buy eBay → takeover-premium speculation → eBay shares soar · quality: ROE 43% · margin 18% · rev +20%
why: Social-sourced M&A rumor that already moved the stock; speculative and largely priced, fade risk high.
BN.TO TSX BROOKFIELD CORPORATION watch · log-only ◆ SPECULATIVE DIRECT · buyback renewal
Target
↑2%
Horizon
21d · 30 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
50%
BUY 63.20 TARGET 64.46 (+2%) STOP 60.04 (-5%) ⚠ cost · only +1.5% net
Chain: Brookfield renews share buyback authorization, signaling capital return and management's view shares are undervalued · quality: ROE 3% · margin 2% · rev +8%
why: Buyback renewal is a mild positive/floor signal, not a sharp catalyst; weak standalone conviction.
ARM US Arm Holdings watch · log-only ◆ HIGH DIRECT · analyst PT upgrade
Target
↑2%
Horizon
5d · 8 left
Since entry
+0.0%
Model: priced-in
80%
BUY 380.81 TARGET 388.43 (+2%) STOP 361.77 (-5%) ⚠ FX drag · only +-1.5% net
Chain: BofA reiterates buy with 37% price-target raise; ARM already +11% on the session · quality: ROE 12% · margin 18% · rev +20%
why: Genuine PT upgrade but stock already moved +11%, so most of the catalyst is priced; limited residual upside.

Momentum watch

retail-trending · in universe
TickerQualityPriceBuyTargetStopNet @targetWorth it?
APH US
Amphenol
 ◆ HIGH 88 153.80 153.80 166.10 146.11 +4.5% ✓ yes
FCX US
Freeport-McMoRan
 ◆ HIGH 84 68.41 68.41 73.88 64.99 +4.5% ✓ yes
HUM US
Humana
 ◆ OK 57 379.22 379.22 409.56 360.26 +4.5% ✓ yes
WBD US
Warner Bros. Discovery
 ◆ SPECULATIVE 24 26.98 26.98 29.14 25.63 +4.5% ✓ yes
Assumes a ~8% momentum move for the target (illustrative, NOT a prediction). Stop is a tight 5%. "Worth it?" = nets ≥2% after Wealthsimple costs.
"Hit" = direction right AND the predicted magnitude met within the horizon. Marks are net of an assumed 0.25%/side spread+slippage. Long-only (Wealthsimple $1k = no easy shorting); down-theses are logged & scored for calibration but not paper-traded. State written daily by news_sleeve.py after the close — this page only reads it. Research, not advice.